Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 45). Guimaraes had 6.2 days of rest, SC Braga 6 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Guimaraes35%
Draw27%
SC Braga38%
Guimaraes36%
Draw27%
SC Braga37%
Guimaraes35%
Draw27%
SC Braga38%
Guimaraes28%
Draw27%
SC Braga45%
Guimaraes36%
Draw27%
SC Braga37%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 65
Team strength
Guimaraes
SC Braga
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
28
AttackIn forecast
42
39
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesSC Braga
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
30%
On target shareContext
45%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
52%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.40
Shots allowedContext
7.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.00
BlocksContext
1.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
68%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
372
PassesContext
616
302
Accurate passesContext
539
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.40
FoulsContext
8.60
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.40
ShotsContext
14.75
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
28%
On target shareContext
46%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
59%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.30
Shots allowedContext
6.63
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
1.78
BlocksContext
2.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
67%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
403
PassesContext
569
335
Accurate passesContext
493
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.70
FoulsContext
9.75
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.13
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km619 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel16 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 619 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
6Matija Mitrović
16Beni
11Gustavo Silva
88M. Nogueira
18Telmo Arcanjo
7Nélson Oliveira
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
5Leonardo Lelo
4S. Niakaté
14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
39Fran Navarro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
SC Braga · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Guimaraes wins2 draws2 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 16 Feb 2025Guimaraes0–0SC Braga
- 15 Sep 2024SC Braga0–2Guimaraes
- 11 May 2024Guimaraes2–3SC Braga
- 6 Jan 2024SC Braga1–1Guimaraes
- 27 Feb 2023Guimaraes2–1SC Braga
- 3 Sep 2022SC Braga1–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 10.00 | 9.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.40 | 5.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.67 | 9.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.80 | 5.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 5.00
Red cards0.42league 0.21
Cards 5+55%league 60%
Fouls28.2league 27.6
Penalties0.34league 0.35
Home wins62%league 33%
Guimaraes10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.1
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- L11 Aug 25A · FC Porto0–33
- W16 Mar 25H · Estrela2–01
- D24 Feb 25A · FC Porto1–12
- D16 Dec 24A · Rio Ave2–21
- D27 Oct 24A · Estrela2–23
SC Braga7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D3 May 25H · Santa Clara1–10
- W9 Feb 25H · GIL Vicente2–00
- W1 Dec 24A · AVS1–01
- W18 Aug 24A · Boavista1–01
- L11 Feb 24A · Sporting CP0–50
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes5 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Braga5 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 24 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
