Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were slight favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 43). Guimaraes had 10.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 10 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days10.1 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
Guimaraes20%
Draw25%
Sporting CP55%
Guimaraes21%
Draw24%
Sporting CP55%
Guimaraes20%
Draw25%
Sporting CP55%
Guimaraes15%
Draw22%
Sporting CP62%
Guimaraes21%
Draw24%
Sporting CP55%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 56
Team strength
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
28
AttackIn forecast
75
39
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesSporting CP
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.71
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.23
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
57%
Scored inContext
100%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
12.36
ShotsContext
19.14
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
28%
On target shareContext
39%
6.36
Shots in the boxContext
12.57
53%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.86
Shots allowedContext
7.36
4.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.62
3.25
BlocksContext
2.07
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
77%
Save rateContext
82%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
364
PassesContext
536
299
Accurate passesContext
468
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.14
13.50
FoulsContext
12.21
14.93
Fouls sufferedContext
13.21
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.88
60%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.60
ShotsContext
16.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.67
29%
On target shareContext
42%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
54%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.14
11.90
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.88
BlocksContext
2.40
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
83%
Save rateContext
83%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
350
PassesContext
529
288
Accurate passesContext
467
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.01
13.30
FoulsContext
11.30
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest10.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 10Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 78 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
28Thiago Balieiro
2Miguel Maga
48N. Saviolo
30Gonçalo Nogueira
6Matija Mitrović
20Samu
19O. Camara
90A. Ndoye
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
20M. Araújo
52João Simões
42M. Hjulmand
17Trincão
97L. Suárez
89F. Ioannidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Sporting CP · Away
2.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-0
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 0.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 4–0 H | W 6–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Arouca | D 1–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Estoril | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 17 of 36 · 1.42 per game | 29 of 36 · 2.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Guimaraes wins1 draws4 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 17 May 2025Sporting CP2–0Guimaraes
- 3 Jan 2025Guimaraes4–4Sporting CP
- 21 Apr 2024Sporting CP3–0Guimaraes
- 9 Dec 2023Guimaraes3–2Sporting CP
- 24 Apr 2023Guimaraes0–2Sporting CP
- 5 Nov 2022Sporting CP3–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 2.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.21 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.90 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 6.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.57 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 9.33 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.14 | 3.07 | |
| Match total | 5.64 | 5.28 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 9/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 7.86 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.90 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 5.10
Red cards0.29league 0.30
Cards 5+46%league 61%
Fouls25.3league 27.4
Penalties0.23league 0.46
Home wins41%league 37%
Guimaraes8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25A · Estrela2–00
- D18 Jan 25H · Arouca2–21
- L7 Dec 24A · Benfica0–11
- W3 Nov 24H · Moreirense1–00
- W21 Jan 24H · Estrela3–01
Sporting CP4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- W27 Apr 25A · Boavista5–04
- W15 Mar 25H · Famalicao3–15
- D15 Feb 25H · Arouca2–23
- W5 Oct 24H · Casa Pia2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes14 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Sporting CP14 games · scored 38 · conceded 7
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
7
31-45
6
46-60
6
2
61-75
10
1
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 7
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
