Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hamburger SV48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.96
FC St. Pauli26.5%fair odds 3.77
Expected goals1.68 – 1.19total 2.88
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hamburger SV ↓ · FC St. Pauli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.40
- 2–19.5%10.50
- 1–08.9%11.28
- 2–08.0%12.54
- 1–26.8%14.81
- 0–06.2%16.08
- 0–16.1%16.36
- 2–25.7%17.59
- 3–15.3%18.70
- 3–04.5%22.33
Winning margin
11.2%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 8.92
14.9%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 6.73
22.2%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 4.51
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.96
15.5%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 6.43
7.5%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 13.39
3.5%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 28.78
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Hamburger SV goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
FC St. Pauli goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 48.3% | 47.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.3% | -1.0 pp |
| FC St. Pauli win | 26.5% | 26.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 50.9% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.4% | 54.4% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.68 | 1.58 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.19 | 1.13 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hamburger SV win48.3%2.07
- Draw25.3%3.96
- FC St. Pauli win26.5%3.77
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw73.5%1.36
- Double chance Hamburger SV or FC St. Pauli74.7%1.34
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV64.6%1.55
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli35.4%2.82
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.554.9%1.82
- Over 3.532.6%3.07
- Over 4.516.5%6.07
- Under 1.521.2%4.72
- Under 2.545.1%2.22
- Under 3.567.4%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes57.4%1.74
- No42.6%2.35
- Yes and over 2.545.5%2.20
- Hamburger SV win and yes24.2%4.14
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- FC St. Pauli win and yes14.2%7.06
Team goals
- Hamburger SV over 0.581.4%1.23
- Hamburger SV over 1.550.2%1.99
- Hamburger SV over 2.523.9%4.19
- FC St. Pauli over 0.569.7%1.43
- FC St. Pauli over 1.533.5%2.98
- FC St. Pauli over 2.511.9%8.39
- Hamburger SV clean sheet30.3%3.30
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet18.6%5.39
- Hamburger SV win to nil24.1%4.15
- FC St. Pauli win to nil12.3%8.11
Handicap
- Hamburger SV −1.526.1%3.83
- Hamburger SV −2.511.2%8.92
- FC St. Pauli +1.573.9%1.35
- FC St. Pauli +2.588.8%1.13
- FC St. Pauli −1.510.9%9.14
- Hamburger SV +1.589.1%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored9
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result32.2%
1X2 Brier0.790
Over 2.5 called right77.8%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 1 | 43.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 54.1% | 25.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 66.0% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 9 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Hamburger SV52·24·24
- ✗FSV Mainz 05 0–1 1.FC Köln59·22·19
- ✗FC St. Pauli 3–3 Borussia Dortmund14·20·66
- ✗Union Berlin 2–1 VfB Stuttgart31·25·44
- ✓1. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg35·27·39
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1 Werder Bremen54·23·22
- ✗Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim74·16·10
- ✗SC Freiburg 1–3 FC Augsburg51·25·24
- ✓Bayern München 6–0 RB Leipzig70·18·12
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 9 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.