Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Hamburger SV were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Hamburger SV had 5.1 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 6.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV48%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli26%
Hamburger SV47%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli27%
Hamburger SV48%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli26%
Hamburger SV41%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli33%
Hamburger SV47%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 58
Team strength
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
37
AttackIn forecast
20
43
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVFC St. Pauli
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
33%
Scored inContext
70%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.10
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
26%
On target shareContext
41%
3.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
33%
Box shareContext
59%
4%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.33
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
—
BlocksContext
3.33
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
93%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
432
PassesContext
404
345
Accurate passesContext
328
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
9.90
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
0.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km713 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 713 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 15.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
8Daniel Elfadli
17W. Omari
28M. Muheim
24N. Capaldo
21N. Remberg
16G. Gocholeishvili
38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
11R. Königsdörffer
29E. Sahiti
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
25A. Dźwigała
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
10D. Sinani
28M. Pereira Lage
27A. Hountondji
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC St. Pauli+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
No home games yet this season.
FC St. Pauli · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 6.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Hamburger SV | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 6.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 7.00 | 10.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 6.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Hamburger SV | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.10 | 10.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.33 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 5.11
Red cards0.10league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 56%
Fouls23.3league 23.9
Penalties0.33league 0.44
Home wins34%league 33%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
FC St. Pauli3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 May 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–22
- D6 Apr 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–10
- L5 Oct 24H · FSV Mainz 050–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
FC St. Pauli1 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Hamburger SV3 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
