Bundesliga Gameweek 6 Sun, Oct 5 · 16:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 15th · 5 pts · 5 played
4–0Full time
FSV Mainz 05 16th · 4 pts · 5 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 32). Absences weigh more on Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV had 6.9 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8.1 and had to travel 414 km.

Away travel414 kmRest days6.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV28%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0547%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.70
Hamburger SV29%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0544%
Expected goals 1.18 – 1.52
Hamburger SV29%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.64
Hamburger SV22%
Draw23%
FSV Mainz 0555%
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.90
Hamburger SV28%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Expected goals 1.18 – 1.57
Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.35
  • Matches 52

Team strength

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57
40 Current StrengthIn forecast 55
37 AttackIn forecast 68
43 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.23
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.53 Goals minus xGContext -0.23
20% Scored inContext 40%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.80 ShotsContext 13.40
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60
36% On target shareContext 19%
6.75 Shots in the boxContext 10.60
47% Box shareContext 79%
3% ConversionContext 8%
2.20 OffsidesContext 3.75
17.20 Shots allowedContext 13.80
6.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20
4.20 BlocksContext 3.60
4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
72% Save rateContext 63%
46% PossessionIn forecast 51%
405 PassesContext 393
343 Accurate passesContext 302
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.82
13.60 FoulsContext 10.80
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.40
This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games
0.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02
-0.50 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
29% Scored inContext 70%
43% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.29 ShotsContext 15.80
3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
33% On target shareContext 26%
5.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
43% Box shareContext 75%
4% ConversionContext 11%
2.14 OffsidesContext 3.67
15.57 Shots allowedContext 11.20
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90
4.00 BlocksContext 2.78
4.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70
76% Save rateContext 69%
50% PossessionIn forecast 53%
425 PassesContext 408
352 Accurate passesContext 323
83% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.94
12.57 FoulsContext 10.20
13.43 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 7 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FSV Mainz 05
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel414 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hamburger SV FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Sep8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km414 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways511 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one12.912.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Confirmed XI
3-4-3
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli 44L. Vušković 24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim 21N. Remberg 6A. Sambi Lokonga 16G. Gocholeishvili
7Jean-Luc Dompe 11R. Königsdörffer 14Rayan Philippe
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1L. Rieß(G)
31D. Kohr 25A. Hanche-Olsen 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 9A. Nordin
7J. Lee 8P. Nebel
17B. Hollerbach
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hamburger SV Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Hamburger SV-1.1 pp
  • Draw-0.4 pp
  • FSV Mainz 05+1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
FSV Mainz 05 · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 0.401.00
Conceded per game 1.601.20
Match goals 2.002.20 2.96
Over 1.5 60%60%
Over 2.5 40%20% 57%
Over 3.5 20%20%
Both teams scored 20%40% 59%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 80%60%
Games55
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 0.401.00
Conceded per game 1.601.20
Match goals 2.002.20 2.96
Over 1.5 60%60%
Over 2.5 40%20% 57%
Over 3.5 20%20%
Both teams scored 20%40% 59%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 80%60%
Games55

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won3.006.60
Corners conceded6.403.60
Match total9.4010.2010.27
Over 8.540% 2/560% 3/5
Over 9.540% 2/560% 3/5
Over 10.540% 2/540% 2/5
Cards
Cards2.802.60
Opponent cards2.001.40
Match total4.804.004.41
Over 3.580% 4/560% 3/5
Over 4.560% 3/520% 1/5
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won3.296.90
Corners conceded5.573.70
Match total8.8610.6010.27
Over 8.529% 2/780% 8/10
Over 9.529% 2/780% 8/10
Over 10.529% 2/750% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.001.90
Opponent cards2.431.90
Match total4.433.804.41
Over 3.571% 5/740% 4/10
Over 4.543% 3/720% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 4.15
Red cards0.21league 0.27
Cards 5+37%league 40%
Fouls23.0league 22.7
Penalties0.35league 0.44
Home wins48%league 40%
Hamburger SV

No previous matches with this referee.

FSV Mainz 053 with this referee
Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W24 Feb 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–02
  • W15 Oct 22A · Werder Bremen2–02
  • W22 Oct 21H · FC Augsburg4–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Hamburger SV5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
2 0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
FSV Mainz 055 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Hamburger SV7 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
1899 Hoffenheim 1.FC Köln 01 Werder Bremen FC St. Pauli 10 Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig 11 Bayer Leverkusen Union Berlin 20 FC Augsburg VfL Wolfsburg 31 Eintracht Frankfurt Bayern München 03 VfB Stuttgart 1. FC Heidenheim 10 Hamburger SV FSV Mainz 05 40 Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Freiburg 00