Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hamburger SV27.8%fair odds 3.59
Draw25.0%fair odds 3.99
FSV Mainz 0547.1%fair odds 2.12
Expected goals1.26 – 1.70total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hamburger SV ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.55
- 1–29.4%10.60
- 0–18.2%12.14
- 0–27.5%13.34
- 2–17.0%14.30
- 1–06.0%16.79
- 2–25.9%16.84
- 0–05.8%17.27
- 1–35.3%18.73
- 0–34.2%23.58
Winning margin
3.9%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 25.39
8.0%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 12.56
15.9%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 6.27
25.0%
Draw
fair 3.99
21.7%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 4.61
14.5%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 6.91
10.9%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 9.14
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Hamburger SV goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
9%3
4%4+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 27.8% | 27.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.3% | -1.2 pp |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 47.1% | 45.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 51.7% | +5.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.1% | 55.4% | +3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.26 | 1.18 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.70 | 1.57 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hamburger SV win27.8%3.59
- Draw25.0%3.99
- FSV Mainz 05 win47.1%2.12
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw52.9%1.89
- Double chance Hamburger SV or FSV Mainz 0575.0%1.33
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw72.2%1.39
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV37.1%2.69
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0562.9%1.59
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.580.0%1.25
- Over 2.556.7%1.76
- Over 3.534.3%2.92
- Over 4.517.7%5.63
- Under 1.520.0%5.00
- Under 2.543.3%2.31
- Under 3.565.7%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes59.1%1.69
- No40.9%2.44
- Yes and over 2.547.4%2.11
- Hamburger SV win and yes15.3%6.53
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes24.5%4.08
Team goals
- Hamburger SV over 0.571.6%1.40
- Hamburger SV over 1.535.9%2.79
- Hamburger SV over 2.513.4%7.49
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.581.7%1.22
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.550.6%1.98
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.524.2%4.13
- Hamburger SV clean sheet18.3%5.46
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Hamburger SV win to nil12.5%7.99
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil22.6%4.42
Handicap
- Hamburger SV −1.511.9%8.40
- Hamburger SV −2.53.9%25.39
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.588.1%1.14
- FSV Mainz 05 +2.596.1%1.04
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.525.4%3.93
- Hamburger SV +1.574.6%1.34
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored52
Favourite won53.8%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.2% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.5% | 38.5% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 66.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 34 of 52 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5188 | 0.5282 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.3% | 44.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.8% | 61.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 34 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim67·20·14
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 0–3 Bayern München24·23·53
- ✓FC Augsburg 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg39·26·34
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin70·19·12
- ✗Borussia Dortmund 1–1 RB Leipzig59·22·19
- ✓Werder Bremen 1–0 FC St. Pauli58·22·19
- ✗1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 1.FC Köln48·25·27
- ✗Union Berlin 0–0 Hamburger SV51·25·24
- ✓1.FC Köln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart32·26·42
- ✗SC Freiburg 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim53·24·23
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 52 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.