Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 35). Hamburger SV had 7 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 7 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV40%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
Hamburger SV39%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
Hamburger SV40%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
Hamburger SV33%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg41%
Hamburger SV40%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg33%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 49
Team strength
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
37
AttackIn forecast
50
43
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVVfL Wolfsburg
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
43%
Scored inContext
57%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.43
ShotsContext
13.43
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
37%
On target shareContext
27%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.57
54%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
—
15.14
Shots allowedContext
13.29
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.71
BlocksContext
3.57
4.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
73%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
396
PassesContext
403
329
Accurate passesContext
327
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.29
FoulsContext
10.43
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
44%
Scored inContext
60%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.89
ShotsContext
13.20
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
28%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
49%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.33
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.63
BlocksContext
3.40
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
76%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
413
PassesContext
403
340
Accurate passesContext
328
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.56
FoulsContext
9.40
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel136 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 588 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
2W. Mikelbrencis
7Jean-Luc Dompe
11R. Königsdörffer
14Rayan Philippe
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
14J. Seelt
26S. Kumbedi
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
9M. Amoura
24C. Eriksen
11A. Daghim
23J. Wind
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Hamburger SV | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 7.43 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 11.72 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.00 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Hamburger SV | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 11.60 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 3.10 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.31
Red cards0.20league 0.22
Cards 5+51%league 44%
Fouls24.4league 22.8
Penalties0.20league 0.41
Home wins43%league 41%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
VfL Wolfsburg7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L15 Mar 25A · FC Augsburg0–12
- W30 Nov 24A · RB Leipzig5–11
- D17 Feb 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- D1 Apr 23H · FC Augsburg2–23
- L12 Mar 22A · SC Freiburg2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg7 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Hamburger SV9 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
