Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
15th · 12 pts · 12 played
LLDLW
3–2Full time
Werder Bremen
11th · 16 pts · 12 played
WDWLD
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 33). Hamburger SV had 7 days of rest, Werder Bremen 8 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hamburger SV33%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen41%
Hamburger SV32%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen41%
Hamburger SV32%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen42%
Hamburger SV26%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen49%
Hamburger SV33%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen40%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 86
Team strength
Hamburger SVWerder Bremen
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
37
AttackIn forecast
56
43
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVWerder Bremen
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
50%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.58
ShotsContext
12.67
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.27
65%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.82
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.67
Shots allowedContext
15.33
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
3.82
BlocksContext
4.00
3.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
67%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
397
PassesContext
464
328
Accurate passesContext
382
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.00
FoulsContext
9.33
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.08
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
2.42
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
13.00
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
35%
10.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
72%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.89
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.30
Shots allowedContext
15.60
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.67
BlocksContext
4.10
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
65%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
398
PassesContext
468
329
Accurate passesContext
385
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.30
FoulsContext
9.20
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km620 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 620 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
22Aboubaka Soumahoro
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
18B. Jatta
7Jean-Luc Dompe
14Rayan Philippe
20Fábio Vieira
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
17M. Grüll
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
9K. Topp
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Werder Bremen · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 A | L 0–4 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 8 of 27 · 0.89 per game | 15 of 27 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 3.08 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Hamburger SV | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.58 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 7.71 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 13.28 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 4/12 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 4/12 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 3.91 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 8/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Hamburger SV | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 7.83 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 13.83 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.60 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.95
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+48%league 42%
Fouls23.5league 21.5
Penalties0.17league 0.34
Home wins34%league 45%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–01
Werder Bremen7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Mar 25A · Holstein Kiel3–01
- D24 Aug 24A · FC Augsburg2–21
- D11 May 24A · RB Leipzig1–10
- L30 Mar 24H · VfL Wolfsburg0–25
- W9 Dec 23H · FC Augsburg2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV12 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Werder Bremen12 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
6
61-75
6
4
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
