Bundesliga Gameweek 13 Sun, Dec 7 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 15th · 12 pts · 12 played
3–2Full time
Werder Bremen 11th · 16 pts · 12 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Hamburger SV32.9%fair odds 3.04
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Werder Bremen41.3%fair odds 2.42
Expected goals1.36 – 1.55total 2.91
Likeliest score1–112.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Werder Bremen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Hamburger SV ↓ · Werder Bremen →0123456+
06.17.86.53.41.30.40.1
16.812.18.94.61.80.60.2
25.07.86.03.11.20.40.1
32.33.52.71.40.50.20.1
40.81.20.90.50.20.10.0
50.20.30.30.10.10.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.1%8.27
  • 1–28.9%11.24
  • 0–17.8%12.75
  • 2–17.8%12.80
  • 1–06.8%14.69
  • 0–26.5%15.28
  • 0–06.1%16.49
  • 2–26.0%16.53
  • 2–05.0%19.83
  • 1–34.6%21.77

Winning margin

5.3% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 18.80
9.7% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 10.35
17.9% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 5.59
25.8% Draw fair 3.87
20.5% Werder Bremen by 1 fair 4.88
12.5% Werder Bremen by 2 fair 7.98
8.3% Werder Bremen by 3+ fair 12.06

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

Hamburger SV goals

26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

Werder Bremen goals

21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Hamburger SV win 32.9% 32.7% +0.2 pp
Draw 25.8% 26.8% -1.0 pp
Werder Bremen win 41.3% 40.5% +0.8 pp
Over 2.5 55.6% 51.4% +4.2 pp
Both teams score 59.1% 55.9% +3.2 pp
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.36 1.28 +0.08
Expected goals Werder Bremen 1.55 1.45 +0.10

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Hamburger SV win32.9%3.04
  • Draw25.8%3.87
  • Werder Bremen win41.3%2.42
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw58.7%1.70
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or Werder Bremen74.2%1.35
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or draw67.1%1.49
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV44.3%2.26
  • Draw no bet Werder Bremen55.7%1.80

Goals

  • Over 0.593.9%1.06
  • Over 1.579.3%1.26
  • Over 2.555.6%1.80
  • Over 3.533.2%3.01
  • Over 4.517.0%5.90
  • Under 1.520.7%4.83
  • Under 2.544.4%2.25
  • Under 3.566.8%1.50

Both teams to score

  • Yes59.1%1.69
  • No40.9%2.45
  • Yes and over 2.547.0%2.13
  • Hamburger SV win and yes17.7%5.65
  • Draw and yes19.8%5.06
  • Werder Bremen win and yes21.7%4.61

Team goals

  • Hamburger SV over 0.574.3%1.35
  • Hamburger SV over 1.539.4%2.54
  • Hamburger SV over 2.515.7%6.38
  • Werder Bremen over 0.578.8%1.27
  • Werder Bremen over 1.545.8%2.18
  • Werder Bremen over 2.520.4%4.91
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet21.2%4.71
  • Werder Bremen clean sheet25.7%3.90
  • Hamburger SV win to nil15.2%6.59
  • Werder Bremen win to nil19.6%5.10

Handicap

  • Hamburger SV −1.515.0%6.68
  • Hamburger SV −2.55.3%18.80
  • Werder Bremen +1.585.0%1.18
  • Werder Bremen +2.594.7%1.06
  • Werder Bremen −1.520.8%4.80
  • Hamburger SV +1.579.2%1.26

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored115 Favourite won56.5% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.554 Over 2.5 called right62.6% BTTS called right56.5%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1538.1%46.7%
40–50%3645.2%44.4%
50–60%3154.6%54.8%
60–70%2165.0%76.2%
70–80%1074.5%70.0%
80%+290.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 97 of 115 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.53850.5388
Avg chance given to result44.0%43.5%
Favourite won58.8%58.8%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 97 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 115 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.