Heerenveen vs Utrecht

Eredivisie Gameweek 31 Sun, May 2 · 16:00 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played LDWLW

VS— Compare

Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played DWLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel111 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Heerenveen—%

Draw—%

Utrecht—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Heerenveen)

Forecast from 17 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Heerenveen

Utrecht

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

36 AttackIn forecast 32

40 DefenceIn forecast 31

39 Form indexContext 65

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Utrecht

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.89

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

67% Scored inContext 89%

44% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.11 ShotsContext 12.89

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

40% On target shareContext 34%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 10.25

66% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.56 Shots allowedContext 18.11

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

4.44 BlocksContext 4.33

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

73% Save rateContext 57%

53% PossessionIn forecast 43%

493 PassesContext 391

421 Accurate passesContext 313

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.55

8.67 FoulsContext 16.33

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 10.67

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.80

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.90 ShotsContext 13.70

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

40% On target shareContext 33%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.67

66% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.20 Shots allowedContext 17.60

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

4.70 BlocksContext 4.10

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

69% Save rateContext 57%

54% PossessionIn forecast 43%

498 PassesContext 388

425 Accurate passesContext 312

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.60

8.40 FoulsContext 15.80

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen LDWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Utrecht DWLWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel111 km147 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Apr	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	147 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct

1B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

8N. Courtens 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

22S. Padt(G)

5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans

92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund

11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Utrecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.00

Utrecht · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 2.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Utrecht
Excelsior	W 4–0 H	W 2–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 A	L 1–6 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 4–0 A	D 3–3 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 2–3 H	L 1–4 H
Willem II	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 H
Twente	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Points	10 of 18 · 1.67 per game	10 of 18 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins3 draws2 Utrecht wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.50 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

21 May 2026Utrecht3–2Heerenveen
1 Feb 2026Heerenveen1–1Utrecht
28 Sep 2025Utrecht2–2Heerenveen
30 Mar 2025Utrecht2–0Heerenveen
17 Aug 2024Heerenveen1–1Utrecht
20 Aug 2023Utrecht0–2Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Utrecht
Scored per game	1.67	1.78
Conceded per game	1.22	2.89
Match goals	2.89	4.67
Over 1.5	78%	100%
Over 2.5	56%	100%
Over 3.5	56%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	89%
Clean sheets	44%	0%
Failed to score	33%	11%
Games	9	9

	Heerenveen	Utrecht
Scored per game	1.50	1.80
Conceded per game	1.10	2.60
Match goals	2.60	4.40
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	90%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	30%	80%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.25
Corners conceded	4.89	5.25
Match total	10.00	9.50	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.11
Opponent cards	1.33	0.89
Match total	2.33	3.00	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	22% 2/9

	Heerenveen	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.67
Corners conceded	5.20	5.33
Match total	10.40	10.00	10.39
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.90
Opponent cards	1.20	0.90
Match total	2.20	2.80	2.77
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.