Excelsior vs Cambuur

Eredivisie Gameweek 31 Sun, May 2 · 16:00 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

VS— Compare

Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played DWDWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel168 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Excelsior—%

Draw—%

Cambuur—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 17 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Excelsior

Cambuur

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

21 AttackIn forecast 22

18 DefenceIn forecast 23

11 Form indexContext 51

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cambuur

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Cambuur

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

89% Scored inContext 89%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.78 ShotsContext 11.89

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

35% On target shareContext 37%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

70% Box shareContext 71%

17% ConversionContext 12%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.67 Shots allowedContext 14.78

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

4.22 BlocksContext 4.00

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

64% Save rateContext 63%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

390 PassesContext 369

309 Accurate passesContext 295

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.56 FoulsContext 12.11

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 14.10

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

34% On target shareContext 35%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

66% Box shareContext 69%

17% ConversionContext 10%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.11

15.80 Shots allowedContext 13.80

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.50 BlocksContext 3.70

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

65% Save rateContext 64%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

389 PassesContext 395

309 Accurate passesContext 317

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.80 FoulsContext 12.40

7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Cambuur DWDWD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel168 km191 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected

D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Cambuur
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Apr	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	191 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1T. Jansen(G)

28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah

8N. Souren 33M. Maertens

11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka

13N. Binder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Cambuur Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Cambuur · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Cambuur
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	W 3–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Excelsior wins0 draws0 Cambuur wins

Goals per game4.00 – 0.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

7 Aug 2026Cambuur0–4Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Cambuur
Scored per game	1.78	1.44
Conceded per game	2.00	2.33
Match goals	3.78	3.78
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	100%	78%
Over 3.5	56%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	67%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	Excelsior	Cambuur
Scored per game	1.90	1.44
Conceded per game	2.00	2.33
Match goals	3.90	3.78
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	100%	78%
Over 3.5	60%	67%
Both teams scored	70%	67%
Clean sheets	20%	22%
Failed to score	10%	11%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Cambuur	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	3.78
Corners conceded	4.50	5.78
Match total	8.75	9.56	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.22	1.78
Opponent cards	0.78	1.78
Match total	2.00	3.56	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	33% 3/9

	Excelsior	Cambuur	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.80
Corners conceded	4.56	5.30
Match total	8.56	10.10	10.39
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.00
Opponent cards	1.10	2.40
Match total	2.20	4.40	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.