Heracles vs NAC Breda – 14 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 14 · 15:30 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 17th · 17 pts · 22 played LLLWL

First leg1–2 0–1Full time

NAC Breda 18th · 16 pts · 22 played DLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Heracles were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards NAC Breda. Heracles had 7 days of rest, NAC Breda 7.9 and had to travel 155 km.

Away travel155 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Heracles44%

Draw25%

NAC Breda31%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.33

Heracles45%

Draw27%

NAC Breda29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Heracles44%

Draw26%

NAC Breda31%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.29

Heracles36%

Draw26%

NAC Breda38%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.49

Heracles44%

Draw26%

NAC Breda30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.30

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 104

Team strength

Heracles

NAC Breda

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 13

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

7 AttackIn forecast 19

10 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

NAC Breda

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

2.59 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

64% Scored inContext 59%

5% Clean sheetsContext 9%

10.36 ShotsContext 12.86

4.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

38% On target shareContext 33%

7.19 Shots in the boxContext 8.19

66% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.73 OffsidesContext 1.94

16.95 Shots allowedContext 12.64

6.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.36

5.38 BlocksContext 2.90

3.95 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.73

60% Save rateContext 70%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

332 PassesContext 398

255 Accurate passesContext 314

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.64 FoulsContext 10.91

11.14 Fouls sufferedContext 12.91

1.95 Yellow cardsContext 1.77

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.18

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

70% Scored inContext 40%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.80 ShotsContext 14.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

43% On target shareContext 31%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

75% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.80 Shots allowedContext 11.70

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.78 BlocksContext 2.50

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

61% Save rateContext 72%

42% PossessionIn forecast 51%

320 PassesContext 417

244 Accurate passesContext 329

76% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.50 FoulsContext 9.70

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km159 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NAC Breda

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel155 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	NAC Breda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	159 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

22R. Pasveer(G)

24I. Mesík 6S. Čestić 23M. te Wierik

5D. van der Kust 4D. Mirani 70A. Hrustić 2M. Benita

9N. Ünüvar 73W. Ould-Chikh

19L. Kulenović

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 8C. Leemans 12L. Greiml 25C. Valerius

14K. Sowah 16M. Balard 90L. Holtby

9M. Soumano 24A. Ayew 7C. Brym

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NAC Breda Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles+0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
NAC Breda+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 1.30points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-5
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.40

NAC Breda · Away 0.40points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-6
Scored: 0.90
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heracles	NAC Breda
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Feyenoord	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 H	D 3–3 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 3–4 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Telstar	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–2 H	W 1–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
PEC Zwolle	W 8–2 H	D 2–2 H
FC Volendam	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Groningen	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Ajax	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Utrecht	L 0–4 A	D 1–1 H
Points	17 of 63 · 0.81 per game	13 of 63 · 0.62 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Heracles wins1 draws1 NAC Breda wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

20 Sep 2025NAC Breda2–1Heracles
31 Jan 2025NAC Breda1–1Heracles
2 Nov 2024Heracles2–0NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.05
Conceded per game	2.59	1.64
Match goals	4.00	2.68	2.96
Over 1.5	100%	68%
Over 2.5	77%	55%	57%
Over 3.5	41%	27%
Both teams scored	59%	55%	60%
Clean sheets	5%	9%
Failed to score	36%	41%
Games	22	22

	Heracles	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.80
Conceded per game	2.40	1.50
Match goals	3.80	2.30	2.96
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.23	5.27
Corners conceded	6.23	3.95
Match total	10.46	9.22	10.27
Over 8.5	73% 16/22	59% 13/22
Over 9.5	50% 11/22	45% 10/22
Over 10.5	36% 8/22	41% 9/22
Cards
Cards	2.05	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.05
Match total	4.05	4.05	3.55
Over 3.5	50% 11/22	55% 12/22
Over 4.5	36% 8/22	45% 10/22

	Heracles	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.30
Corners conceded	6.10	3.80
Match total	10.10	10.10	10.27
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	4.60	3.80	3.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.35

Red cards0.13league 0.20

Cards 5+27%league 31%

Fouls21.7league 21.7

Penalties0.30league 0.25

Home wins41%league 43%

Heracles5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.6 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D6 Dec 25H · Telstar1–13
L25 Oct 25A · FC Volendam0–33
W8 Feb 25H · GO Ahead Eagles4–20
L14 Dec 24A · Feyenoord2–51
D28 Sep 23A · AZ Alkmaar1–13

NAC Breda2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

D18 Oct 25H · PEC Zwolle2–20
L6 Apr 25A · Ajax1–35

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.