Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heracles
17th · 17 pts · 22 played
LLLWL
First leg1–2
0–1Full time
NAC Breda
18th · 16 pts · 22 played
DLDDL
Heracles43.9%fair odds 2.28
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.94
NAC Breda30.7%fair odds 3.25
Expected goals1.63 – 1.33total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heracles ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heracles goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.46
- 2–19.2%10.93
- 1–07.8%12.76
- 1–27.5%13.37
- 2–06.9%14.55
- 0–16.3%15.88
- 2–26.1%16.41
- 0–05.8%17.32
- 3–15.0%20.12
- 0–24.6%21.79
Winning margin
9.5%
Heracles by 3+
fair 10.52
13.4%
Heracles by 2
fair 7.46
21.0%
Heracles by 1
fair 4.77
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.94
17.0%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 5.87
9.0%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 11.17
4.8%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 20.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Heracles goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
NAC Breda goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 43.9% | 44.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.6% | -0.2 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 30.7% | 30.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 55.8% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.8% | 58.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Heracles | 1.63 | 1.61 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.33 | 1.30 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heracles win43.9%2.28
- Draw25.4%3.94
- NAC Breda win30.7%3.25
- Double chance Heracles or draw69.3%1.44
- Double chance Heracles or NAC Breda74.6%1.34
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw56.1%1.78
- Draw no bet Heracles58.8%1.70
- Draw no bet NAC Breda41.2%2.43
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.8%1.76
- Over 3.534.4%2.91
- Over 4.517.8%5.61
- Under 1.519.9%5.02
- Under 2.543.2%2.31
- Under 3.565.6%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes59.8%1.67
- No40.2%2.49
- Yes and over 2.547.9%2.09
- Heracles win and yes23.2%4.30
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- NAC Breda win and yes16.9%5.91
Team goals
- Heracles over 0.580.4%1.24
- Heracles over 1.548.5%2.06
- Heracles over 2.522.4%4.46
- NAC Breda over 0.573.6%1.36
- NAC Breda over 1.538.4%2.60
- NAC Breda over 2.515.0%6.66
- Heracles clean sheet26.4%3.79
- NAC Breda clean sheet19.6%5.10
- Heracles win to nil20.6%4.85
- NAC Breda win to nil13.8%7.23
Handicap
- Heracles −1.522.9%4.37
- Heracles −2.59.5%10.52
- NAC Breda +1.577.1%1.30
- NAC Breda +2.590.5%1.11
- NAC Breda −1.513.7%7.29
- Heracles +1.586.3%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored199
Favourite won49.7%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.597
Over 2.5 called right63.3%
BTTS called right62.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 72 | 45.0% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 55.1% | 47.8% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 64.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 74.2% | 86.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 176 of 199 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6021 | 0.5981 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 48.9% | 51.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 176 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 199 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.