Hull City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Everton were slight favourites.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Hull City were without C. Hughes and N. Mendy. Everton were without V. Mykolenko. Hull City had 22 days of rest, Everton 22 and had to travel 178 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel178 kmRest days22 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Hull City26%
Draw25%
Everton49%
Hull City26%
Draw25%
Everton49%
Hull City27%
Draw25%
Everton48%
Hull City21%
Draw23%
Everton56%
Hull City27%
Draw24%
Everton49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hull)
14°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeMichael Salisbury
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 91
Team strength
Hull City
Everton
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
37
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
37
AttackIn forecast
61
50
DefenceIn forecast
66
78
Form indexContext
78
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hull CityEverton
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.20
ShotsContext
16.00
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
29%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
50%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.60
13.80
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.20
BlocksContext
5.60
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
83%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
281
PassesContext
408
203
Accurate passesContext
339
72%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.00
FoulsContext
8.00
7.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
13.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
35%
On target shareContext
31%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
57%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.80
BlocksContext
6.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
78%
Save rateContext
69%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
287
PassesContext
383
199
Accurate passesContext
312
69%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.60
FoulsContext
11.10
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hull City
WWDDL
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 8 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
Everton
WDDDW
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel178 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hull City |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 22Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hull City
Confirmed XI
19K. Tzolakis(G)
3R. Giles
32N. Mendy
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
11J. Gelhardt
9O. McBurnie
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
4J. Branthwaite
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
45H. Armstrong
37J. Garner
10J. Grealish
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
22B. Johnson
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hull City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −11.6% · Defence line −21.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF C. Hughes Starter 7.00 Def −8.2%
- DEF N. Mendy Starter 7.18 Def −6.8%
- MID E. Stroud Starter 6.44 Att −7.4% Def −3.4%
- MID T. Iroegbunam Rotation 5.92 Att −2.4% Def −1.1%
- MID D. Gyabi Rotation 6.62 Att −0.9% Def −0.4%
- MID H. Morita Rotation 6.90 Att −0.9% Def −0.4%
Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −1.6% · Defence line −14.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF V. Mykolenko Starter 6.78 Def −13.5%
- MID M. Röhl Rotation 6.56 Att −1.6% Def −1.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Hull City-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Everton+1.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Hull City · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Everton · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hull City | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Hull City | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hull City | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.75 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.80 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Hull City | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 10.89 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Salisbury 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 3.88
Red cards0.19league 0.14
Cards 5+36%league 43%
Fouls22.3league 23.1
Penalties0.27league 0.16
Home wins52%league 38%
Hull City1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Mar 22A · Birmingham0–01
Everton2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Dec 25A · Bournemouth1–03
- W5 Oct 25H · Crystal Palace2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hull City5 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Everton5 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
