UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Wed, Nov 25 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Inter 29th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
VfB Stuttgart 4th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel369 kmRest days3 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Inter—%
Draw—%
VfB Stuttgart—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Milano)

Forecast from 10 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Inter and VfB Stuttgart. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

InterVfB Stuttgart
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
83 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
91 AttackIn forecast 70
73 DefenceIn forecast 58
76 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—
Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

InterVfB Stuttgart
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
24.00 ShotsContext 16.50
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
33% On target shareContext 33%
16.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
66% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 18%
3.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
13.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
3.00 BlocksContext 5.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
64% Save rateContext 75%
59% PossessionIn forecast 63%
533 PassesContext 628
488 Accurate passesContext 550
92% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.76 Team ratingContext 7.15
8.00 FoulsContext 14.00
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
100% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
21.00 ShotsContext 16.80
7.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
34% On target shareContext 37%
14.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
70% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 11%
2.88 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.40 Shots allowedContext 15.50
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
2.80 BlocksContext 5.22
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
64% Save rateContext 65%
61% PossessionIn forecast 55%
586 PassesContext 502
529 Accurate passesContext 422
90% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.05 Team ratingContext 7.07
8.70 FoulsContext 11.10
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Bologna3–11.9 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Club Brugge KV3–41.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Parma3–02.6 xPts
  • D19 SepA · AS Roma2–21.2 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Udinese5–32.4 xPts
VfB Stuttgart
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel369 km674 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Inter VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Nov4.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km369 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways90 km674 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.92.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs Bologna (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram
VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Inter Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
3.00
Conceded
4.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

InterVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 2.003.00
Conceded per game 3.000.50
Match goals 5.003.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
InterVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 2.801.90
Conceded per game 1.801.40
Match goals 4.603.30
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 70%50%
Both teams scored 80%60%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

InterVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won7.506.00
Corners conceded3.503.00
Match total11.009.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.501.50
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total5.003.503.80
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
InterVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won6.006.30
Corners conceded3.205.40
Match total9.2011.709.71
Over 8.550% 5/1090% 9/10
Over 9.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 10.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.801.40
Opponent cards1.902.10
Match total3.703.503.80
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Inter2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
3 1 76-90
VfB Stuttgart2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
3 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
3 5 16-30
4 2 31-45
5 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
9 2 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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