Inter vs Lecce – 14 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 16 Wed, Jan 14 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 1st · 43 pts · 19 played WWWWD

1–0Full time

Lecce 17th · 17 pts · 19 played WLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 21). Inter usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Inter had 3 days of rest, Lecce 3.3 and had to travel 925 km.

Away travel925 kmRest days3 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Inter84%

Draw12%

Lecce4%

Expected goals 2.82 – 0.54

Inter85%

Draw11%

Lecce4%

Expected goals 3.02 – 0.59

Inter84%

Draw12%

Lecce4%

Expected goals 2.82 – 0.54

Inter79%

Draw15%

Lecce6%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.60

Inter85%

Draw11%

Lecce4%

Expected goals 3.02 – 0.59

Over 2.5 65% Both score 39% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 69

Team strength

Inter

Lecce

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

91 AttackIn forecast 36

73 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Lecce

2.21 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.68

0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

95% Scored inContext 53%

47% Clean sheetsContext 32%

17.37 ShotsContext 9.63

5.74 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.56

33% On target shareContext 25%

11.89 Shots in the boxContext 5.37

70% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.06 OffsidesContext 1.38

8.37 Shots allowedContext 12.21

3.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.39

2.73 BlocksContext 3.53

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

78% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 44%

522 PassesContext 335

455 Accurate passesContext 257

87% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.71

14.47 FoulsContext 12.37

11.26 Fouls sufferedContext 14.26

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 1.89

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

80% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.10 ShotsContext 9.70

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.30

35% On target shareContext 24%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

67% Box shareContext 52%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

8.60 Shots allowedContext 12.60

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

2.25 BlocksContext 4.00

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

73% Save rateContext 73%

56% PossessionIn forecast 44%

509 PassesContext 325

441 Accurate passesContext 243

87% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.90 FoulsContext 13.00

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km232 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel925 km2,006 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan	3.3Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	925 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	232 km	2,006 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 15F. Acerbi 25M. Akanji

30Carlos Augusto 22H. Mkhitaryan 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 17A. Diouf

9M. Thuram 14A. Bonny

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

93Y. Maleh 29L. Coulibaly

23R. Sottil 16O. Gandelman 50S. Pierotti

9N. Štulić

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lecce+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 2.20points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 7-1-2
Scored: 2.60
Conceded: 0.80

Lecce · Away 1.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-4
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Inter	Lecce
Napoli	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Parma	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Bologna	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
Atalanta	W 1–0 A	L 1–4 A
Genoa	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 A
Como	W 4–0 H	L 0–3 H
Pisa	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Lazio	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 A
Verona	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
Fiorentina	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
AS Roma	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 H
Cremonese	W 4–1 H	L 0–2 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 H
Sassuolo	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Juventus	L 3–4 A	D 1–1 A
Udinese	L 1–2 H	L 2–3 A
Torino	W 5–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	43 of 57 · 2.26 per game	17 of 57 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

6 Inter wins0 draws0 Lecce wins

Goals per game2.67 – 0.17 Over 2.550% Both scored17% Clean sheets83% · 0%

26 Jan 2025Lecce0–4Inter
24 Aug 2024Inter2–0Lecce
25 Feb 2024Lecce0–4Inter
23 Dec 2023Inter2–0Lecce
5 Mar 2023Inter2–0Lecce
13 Aug 2022Lecce1–2Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	2.21	0.68
Conceded per game	0.89	1.42
Match goals	3.11	2.11	3.36
Over 1.5	84%	63%
Over 2.5	63%	37%	65%
Over 3.5	37%	16%
Both teams scored	47%	37%	39%
Clean sheets	47%	32%
Failed to score	5%	47%
Games	19	19

	Inter	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.60
Conceded per game	0.60	1.30
Match goals	2.60	1.90	3.36
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	65%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	39%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	6.53	4.79
Corners conceded	2.74	5.00
Match total	9.27	9.79	8.74
Over 8.5	63% 12/19	79% 15/19
Over 9.5	53% 10/19	63% 12/19
Over 10.5	37% 7/19	37% 7/19
Cards
Cards	1.53	2.00
Opponent cards	1.68	1.68
Match total	3.21	3.68	4.03
Over 3.5	26% 5/19	58% 11/19
Over 4.5	16% 3/19	37% 7/19

	Inter	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.50
Corners conceded	2.60	4.70
Match total	8.50	9.20	8.74
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.40	4.10	4.03
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.07league 3.88

Red cards0.16league 0.18

Cards 5+65%league 38%

Fouls24.9league 25.8

Penalties0.19league 0.31

Home wins35%league 37%

Inter8 with this referee

Record5-2-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 3.1 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 Feb 24H · Juventus1–02
W17 Dec 23A · Lazio2–02
W29 Oct 23H · AS Roma1–03
W6 May 23A · AS Roma2–02
L1 Apr 23H · Fiorentina0–12

Lecce4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D11 May 25A · Verona1–10
L14 Mar 25A · Genoa1–22
W16 Mar 24A · Salernitana1–03
D12 May 23A · Lazio2–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.