Ipswich
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ipswich. Ipswich were without A. Fatawu. Ipswich had 21 days of rest, Fulham 19.9 and had to travel 107 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel107 kmRest days21 · 19.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Ipswich36%
Draw24%
Fulham40%
Ipswich33%
Draw26%
Fulham41%
Ipswich36%
Draw24%
Fulham40%
Ipswich29%
Draw23%
Fulham48%
Ipswich36%
Draw24%
Fulham40%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 52%
RefereeLewis Smith
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 63
Team strength
Ipswich
Fulham
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
59
AttackIn forecast
66
50
DefenceIn forecast
68
61
Form indexContext
25
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
IpswichFulham
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
62%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.20
Shots allowedContext
16.60
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
5.40
BlocksContext
5.80
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
57%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
407
PassesContext
546
334
Accurate passesContext
467
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.60
FoulsContext
10.00
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
14.30
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
29%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
67%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.90
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
5.10
BlocksContext
4.11
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
419
PassesContext
503
343
Accurate passesContext
428
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.30
FoulsContext
10.90
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ipswich
WLLWL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Fulham
LLLDD
Rest19.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel107 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 2 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ipswich |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 19.9Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ipswich
Confirmed XI
28C. Walton(G)
3L. Davis
26D. O'Shea
6I. Diop
42A. Ouattara
12Florentino
23S. Lukić
11J. Philogene
10J. Enciso
38D. Maeda
19Emersonn
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
2K. Tete
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ipswich
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −13.1% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Fatawu Starter 6.70 Att −13.1%
Fulham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −1.1% · Defence line −3.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF K. Tete Rotation 6.77 Def −2.8%
- MID T. Cairney Rotation 6.86 Att −1.1% Def −0.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Ipswich-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fulham+0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Ipswich · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Fulham · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Ipswich | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | W 3–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Ipswich wins2 draws0 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Jan 2025Fulham2–2Ipswich
- 31 Aug 2024Ipswich1–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ipswich | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.60 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Ipswich | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ipswich | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.80 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Ipswich | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.20 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.90 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lewis Smith 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.78
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+32%league 41%
Fouls21.1league 23.0
Penalties0.22league 0.18
Home wins57%league 37%
Ipswich5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W3 Mar 26H · Hull City1–01
- W25 Nov 25A · Hull City2–02
- D3 May 25A · Everton2–24
- L26 Oct 24A · Brentford3–43
- D31 Aug 24H · Fulham1–12
Fulham3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 Jan 26H · Middlesbrough3–11
- D31 Aug 24A · Ipswich1–13
- L17 Feb 24H · Aston Villa1–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ipswich5 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Fulham5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
5
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
