Süper Lig Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 20 · 13:00 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun
Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Gazişehir Gaziantep 14th · 8 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel478 kmRest days8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Samsunspor—%
Draw—%
Gazişehir Gaziantep—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Samsun)

Forecast from 5 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Samsunspor and Gazişehir Gaziantep. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SamsunsporGazişehir Gaziantep
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
15 AttackIn forecast 15
18 DefenceIn forecast 18
4 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SamsunsporGazişehir Gaziantep
0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.10
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
50% Scored inContext 63%
13% Clean sheetsContext 25%
12.38 ShotsContext 12.86
3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
24% On target shareContext 28%
7.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.57
55% Box shareContext 59%
7% ConversionContext 9%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.71
15.50 Shots allowedContext 13.29
6.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.88 BlocksContext 3.57
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
63% Save rateContext 57%
55% PossessionIn forecast 52%
473 PassesContext 431
399 Accurate passesContext 358
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.61 Team ratingContext 6.87
12.75 FoulsContext 11.14
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 17.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
0.94 xGVia Att/Def 0.99
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.01
50% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.00 ShotsContext 12.56
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56
28% On target shareContext 28%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.67
56% Box shareContext 61%
8% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.44
16.50 Shots allowedContext 13.44
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22
4.00 BlocksContext 3.33
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
65% Save rateContext 61%
56% PossessionIn forecast 53%
461 PassesContext 425
385 Accurate passesContext 352
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.66 Team ratingContext 6.84
12.50 FoulsContext 11.00
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 17.33
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,531 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel478 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Istanbul Basaksehir1–20.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Çorum FK0–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Kocaelispor0–21.1 xPts
  • D14 SepH · Fenerbahce0–00.8 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Goztepe4–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Samsunspor Gazişehir Gaziantep
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Dec5.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km478 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,531 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2828

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger
11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly
18M. Bayo
Gazişehir Gaziantep Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Istanbul Basaksehir (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
25K. Tobiasz(G)
21L. Sylla 14L. Abena 4A. Kızıldağ 2Luis Pérez
3D. Camara 61O. Özçiçek 8V. Gidado 18D. Sorescu
10K. Kozłowski 9T. Stewart

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Samsunspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Gazişehir Gaziantep Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.25
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentSamsunsporGazişehir Gaziantep
Çorum FK L 1–5 H L 0–3 H
Kocaelispor L 0–1 A L 0–2 A
Fenerbahce L 0–2 H D 0–0 H
Rizespor W 2–0 A L 1–2 H
Goztepe D 3–3 H W 4–2 A
Points4 of 15 · 0.80 per game4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Samsunspor wins3 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%
  • 1 Mar 2026Samsunspor0–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
  • 27 Sep 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Samsunspor
  • 24 Jan 2025Samsunspor2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
  • 18 Aug 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Samsunspor
  • 18 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Samsunspor
  • 29 Sep 2023Samsunspor1–2Gazişehir Gaziantep

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SamsunsporGazişehir GaziantepForecast
Scored per game 0.881.00
Conceded per game 2.381.50
Match goals 3.252.50
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 38%13%
Both teams scored 38%50%
Clean sheets 13%25%
Failed to score 50%38%
Games88
SamsunsporGazişehir GaziantepForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 2.201.60
Match goals 3.202.60
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 30%60%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 50%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SamsunsporGazişehir GaziantepLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.60
Corners conceded5.634.40
Match total9.638.009.12
Over 8.563% 5/860% 3/5
Over 9.550% 4/840% 2/5
Over 10.538% 3/840% 2/5
Cards
Cards1.002.38
Opponent cards2.002.50
Match total3.004.884.04
Over 3.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 4.525% 2/850% 4/8
SamsunsporGazişehir GaziantepLeague
Corners
Corners won4.114.29
Corners conceded5.224.71
Match total9.339.009.12
Over 8.556% 5/971% 5/7
Over 9.544% 4/943% 3/7
Over 10.533% 3/943% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.302.30
Opponent cards2.202.40
Match total3.504.704.04
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Samsunspor8 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1 5 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 4 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
1 1 76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep8 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 61-75
1 4 76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1 6 0-15
1 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2 4 0-15
2 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Kasimpasa Fenerbahce Dec 1817:00 Amed Goztepe Dec 1817:00 Konyaspor Eyüpspor Dec 1910:30 Istanbul Basaksehir Erzurumspor FK Dec 1913:00 Galatasaray Alanyaspor Dec 1916:00 Genclerbirligi Çorum FK Dec 2010:30 Samsunspor Gazişehir Gaziantep Dec 2013:00 Besiktas Rizespor Dec 2016:00 Trabzonspor Kocaelispor Dec 2117:00