Süper Lig Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 5 · 16:00 Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul
Istanbul Basaksehir 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Istanbul Basaksehir—%
Draw—%
Fenerbahce—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 20 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Istanbul Basaksehir and Fenerbahce. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Istanbul BasaksehirFenerbahce
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 62
32 AttackIn forecast 75
34 DefenceIn forecast 53
33 Form indexContext 65
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—
Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Istanbul BasaksehirFenerbahce
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75
1.46 xGVia Att/Def 2.72
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.03
75% Scored inContext 88%
38% Clean sheetsContext 63%
11.88 ShotsContext 18.57
4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.71
34% On target shareContext 42%
6.88 Shots in the boxContext 13.43
54% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 17%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.43
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.50 BlocksContext 3.29
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
70% Save rateContext 79%
52% PossessionIn forecast 53%
451 PassesContext 474
383 Accurate passesContext 414
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.13
13.88 FoulsContext 13.00
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.75 xGVia Att/Def 2.57
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
80% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.30 ShotsContext 16.11
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56
34% On target shareContext 41%
7.70 Shots in the boxContext 11.33
59% Box shareContext 69%
14% ConversionContext 17%
1.80 OffsidesContext 2.33
11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.33
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25
3.30 BlocksContext 3.56
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63
72% Save rateContext 74%
50% PossessionIn forecast 49%
431 PassesContext 429
364 Accurate passesContext 369
84% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.79 Team ratingContext 7.00
14.20 FoulsContext 12.89
11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12.0 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Konyaspor0–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Genclerbirligi4–01.8 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Amed0–51.2 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Galatasaray2–31.0 xPts
Fenerbahce
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,507 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
  • D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Istanbul Basaksehir Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Nov6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km2,507 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.94.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Istanbul Basaksehir Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
16M. Şengezer(G)
38S. Kharebashvili 27O. Ba 23E. Bayram 33M. Karbownik
18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok
Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Istanbul Basaksehir Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Istanbul Basaksehir · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
3-1-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.00
Fenerbahce · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentIstanbul BasaksehirFenerbahce
Gazişehir Gaziantep W 2–1 H D 0–0 A
Konyaspor D 0–0 A W 4–2 H
Genclerbirligi W 4–0 H L 1–2 A
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws5 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%
  • 2 May 2026Fenerbahce3–1Istanbul Basaksehir
  • 6 Dec 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Fenerbahce
  • 9 May 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–4Fenerbahce
  • 15 Dec 2024Fenerbahce3–1Istanbul Basaksehir
  • 24 Jan 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–1Fenerbahce
  • 28 Sep 2023Fenerbahce4–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Istanbul BasaksehirFenerbahceForecast
Scored per game 1.502.75
Conceded per game 1.500.75
Match goals 3.003.50
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 63%75%
Over 3.5 38%25%
Both teams scored 50%38%
Clean sheets 38%63%
Failed to score 25%13%
Games88
Istanbul BasaksehirFenerbahceForecast
Scored per game 1.702.40
Conceded per game 1.301.20
Match goals 3.003.60
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 50%40%
Clean sheets 40%50%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Istanbul BasaksehirFenerbahceLeague
Corners
Corners won4.256.29
Corners conceded3.883.14
Match total8.139.439.12
Over 8.550% 4/857% 4/7
Over 9.525% 2/843% 3/7
Over 10.513% 1/829% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.501.38
Opponent cards1.881.38
Match total4.382.764.04
Over 3.563% 5/825% 2/8
Over 4.538% 3/825% 2/8
Istanbul BasaksehirFenerbahceLeague
Corners
Corners won3.905.22
Corners conceded4.204.22
Match total8.109.449.12
Over 8.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Over 9.520% 2/1044% 4/9
Over 10.510% 1/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.401.90
Opponent cards1.901.40
Match total4.303.304.04
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Istanbul Basaksehir8 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Fenerbahce8 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
6 1 0-15
3 16-30
4 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
3 3 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Galatasaray Rizespor Dec 417:00 Konyaspor Gazişehir Gaziantep Dec 510:30 Amed Alanyaspor Dec 513:00 Istanbul Basaksehir Fenerbahce Dec 516:00 Erzurumspor FK Kocaelispor Dec 610:30 Besiktas Samsunspor Dec 613:00 Genclerbirligi Eyüpspor Dec 613:00 Trabzonspor Çorum FK Dec 616:00 Kasimpasa Goztepe Dec 717:00