Süper Lig Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 29 · 16:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,049 kmRest days3.8 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Erzurumspor FK—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Fenerbahce and Erzurumspor FK. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FenerbahceErzurumspor FK
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 27
75 AttackIn forecast 17
53 DefenceIn forecast 38
65 Form indexContext 56
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—
Defense risk—

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FenerbahceErzurumspor FK
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
2.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.82
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
88% Scored inContext 50%
63% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.57 ShotsContext 9.43
7.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29
42% On target shareContext 35%
13.43 Shots in the boxContext 6.29
70% Box shareContext 63%
17% ConversionContext 8%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.50
13.43 Shots allowedContext 11.29
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
3.29 BlocksContext 2.20
4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
79% Save rateContext 75%
53% PossessionIn forecast 46%
474 PassesContext 409
414 Accurate passesContext 341
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.67
13.00 FoulsContext 11.71
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
2.57 xGVia Att/Def 0.82
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
80% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.11 ShotsContext 9.43
6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29
41% On target shareContext 35%
11.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.29
69% Box shareContext 63%
17% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.50
14.33 Shots allowedContext 11.29
6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
3.56 BlocksContext 2.20
4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
74% Save rateContext 75%
49% PossessionIn forecast 46%
429 PassesContext 409
369 Accurate passesContext 341
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.67
12.89 FoulsContext 11.71
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,507 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
  • D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts
Erzurumspor FK
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,049 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Fenerbahce Erzurumspor FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov7.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,049 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,507 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 40 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one66.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku
Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00
Erzurumspor FK · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentFenerbahceErzurumspor FK
Alanyaspor W 3–0 H D 0–0 A
Eyüpspor W 8–0 H W 2–0 H
Besiktas L 1–2 H L 0–3 A
Samsunspor W 2–0 A W 1–0 H
Konyaspor W 4–2 H W 1–0 H
Genclerbirligi L 1–2 A D 1–1 A
Points12 of 18 · 2.00 per game11 of 18 · 1.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FenerbahceErzurumspor FKForecast
Scored per game 2.750.63
Conceded per game 0.751.38
Match goals 3.502.00
Over 1.5 88%63%
Over 2.5 75%38%
Over 3.5 25%13%
Both teams scored 38%13%
Clean sheets 63%50%
Failed to score 13%50%
Games88
FenerbahceErzurumspor FKForecast
Scored per game 2.400.63
Conceded per game 1.201.38
Match goals 3.602.00
Over 1.5 90%63%
Over 2.5 70%38%
Over 3.5 30%13%
Both teams scored 40%13%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 20%50%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FenerbahceErzurumspor FKLeague
Corners
Corners won6.293.43
Corners conceded3.143.14
Match total9.436.579.12
Over 8.557% 4/70% 0/7
Over 9.543% 3/70% 0/7
Over 10.529% 2/70% 0/7
Cards
Cards1.381.38
Opponent cards1.382.13
Match total2.763.514.04
Over 3.525% 2/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/850% 4/8
FenerbahceErzurumspor FKLeague
Corners
Corners won5.223.43
Corners conceded4.223.14
Match total9.446.579.12
Over 8.556% 5/90% 0/7
Over 9.544% 4/90% 0/7
Over 10.533% 3/90% 0/7
Cards
Cards1.901.38
Opponent cards1.402.13
Match total3.303.514.04
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 4/8
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Fenerbahce8 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
6 1 0-15
3 16-30
4 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Alanyaspor Konyaspor Nov 2717:00 Rizespor Kasimpasa Nov 2717:00 Samsunspor Genclerbirligi Nov 2813:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Amed Nov 2816:00 Çorum FK Kocaelispor Nov 2910:30 Eyüpspor Istanbul Basaksehir Nov 2913:00 Fenerbahce Erzurumspor FK Nov 2916:00 Goztepe Trabzonspor Nov 3016:00 Besiktas Galatasaray Nov 3018:00