Besiktas vs Samsunspor

Süper Lig Gameweek 14 Sun, Dec 6 · 13:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas 5th · 15 pts · 8 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel619 kmRest days5.8 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Besiktas—%

Draw—%

Samsunspor—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Samsunspor 6 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Besiktas

Samsunspor

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

60 AttackIn forecast 15

48 DefenceIn forecast 18

62 Form indexContext 4

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Besiktas

Samsunspor

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.38

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

75% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

16.57 ShotsContext 12.38

6.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

37% On target shareContext 24%

9.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

56% Box shareContext 55%

11% ConversionContext 7%

3.43 OffsidesContext 2.20

9.57 Shots allowedContext 15.50

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.13

3.40 BlocksContext 3.88

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

68% Save rateContext 63%

61% PossessionIn forecast 55%

488 PassesContext 473

422 Accurate passesContext 399

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.61

13.71 FoulsContext 12.75

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.75 ShotsContext 12.00

6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

37% On target shareContext 28%

10.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

64% Box shareContext 56%

14% ConversionContext 8%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.25 Shots allowedContext 16.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

3.38 BlocksContext 4.00

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

64% Save rateContext 65%

59% PossessionIn forecast 56%

481 PassesContext 461

410 Accurate passesContext 385

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.66

11.44 FoulsContext 12.50

15.22 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas WLWWL

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km926 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Samsunspor LLLLL

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel619 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Nov	8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 28 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	926 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.3	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct

1A. Nübel(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

6S. Özcan

19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

28D. Vlahović

Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes

4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger

11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly

18M. Bayo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Samsunspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.75

Samsunspor · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Besiktas	Samsunspor
Trabzonspor	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 H
Kocaelispor	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Erzurumspor FK	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
Fenerbahce	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 H
Çorum FK	W 6–2 H	L 1–5 H
Points	12 of 15 · 2.40 per game	0 of 15 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Besiktas wins3 draws1 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

19 Apr 2026Samsunspor2–1Besiktas
23 Nov 2025Besiktas1–1Samsunspor
18 Jan 2025Besiktas0–0Samsunspor
11 Aug 2024Samsunspor0–2Besiktas
13 Apr 2024Besiktas1–1Samsunspor
26 Nov 2023Samsunspor1–2Besiktas

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Samsunspor
Scored per game	2.00	0.88
Conceded per game	1.25	2.38
Match goals	3.25	3.25
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	38%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	8	8

	Besiktas	Samsunspor
Scored per game	2.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	2.20
Match goals	3.60	3.20
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	30%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	6.71	4.00
Corners conceded	4.14	5.63
Match total	10.85	9.63	9.12
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.00
Opponent cards	2.88	2.00
Match total	5.38	3.00	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8

	Besiktas	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	4.11
Corners conceded	4.44	5.22
Match total	10.22	9.33	9.12
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	2.60	2.20
Match total	4.80	3.50	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.