Serie A Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 17:30 Allianz Stadium, Torino
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel595 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Juventus—%
Draw—%
Frosinone—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Torino)

Forecast from 15 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Juventus and Frosinone. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

JuventusFrosinone
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 30
57 AttackIn forecast 41
76 DefenceIn forecast 25
74 Form indexContext 69
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Frosinone

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

JuventusFrosinone
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.41
0.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
86% Scored inContext 71%
43% Clean sheetsContext 29%
16.71 ShotsContext 17.29
5.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29
35% On target shareContext 31%
8.86 Shots in the boxContext 10.86
53% Box shareContext 65%
8% ConversionContext 11%
3.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
7.29 Shots allowedContext 19.43
2.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71
1.83 BlocksContext 5.29
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29
67% Save rateContext 75%
58% PossessionIn forecast 42%
547 PassesContext 305
480 Accurate passesContext 227
88% Pass accuracyContext 74%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.86
12.57 FoulsContext 14.86
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.41
0.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
90% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.70 ShotsContext 17.50
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
35% On target shareContext 31%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
60% Box shareContext 61%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.75 OffsidesContext 3.00
8.20 Shots allowedContext 17.40
2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20
1.89 BlocksContext 4.60
2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
68% Save rateContext 77%
57% PossessionIn forecast 43%
532 PassesContext 315
466 Accurate passesContext 241
88% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.86
12.60 FoulsContext 12.70
11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km420 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts
Frosinone
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel595 km713 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Sassuolo4–21.5 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Napoli0–30.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Como2–00.7 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Genoa1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Venezia3–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Juventus Frosinone
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Serie A 2026-2027, 23 May7Serie A 2026-2027, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km595 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways420 km713 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu
29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz
17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González
9R. Kolo Muani
Frosinone Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sassuolo (H) 4–2, 16 Oct
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia 30I. Monterisi 2G. Cittadini 20A. Oyono
14Giacomo Calò 73P. Masini
17G. Kvernadze 10R. Schmid 7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Juventus Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Frosinone Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Frosinone · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 Juventus wins0 draws0 Frosinone wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%
  • 23 Aug 2026Frosinone0–1Juventus
  • 25 Feb 2024Juventus3–2Frosinone
  • 23 Dec 2023Frosinone1–2Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goal timing

Juventus7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
0-15
2 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 3 61-75
6 3 76-90
Frosinone7 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 1 76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 4 76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4 1 0-15
4 3 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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