Serie A Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 17:30 Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Lazio 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel234 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Lazio—%
Draw—%
Fiorentina—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Roma)

Forecast from 15 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lazio and Fiorentina. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LazioFiorentina
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
53 AttackIn forecast 42
63 DefenceIn forecast 34
87 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—
Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LazioFiorentina
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14
0.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43
1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.59
1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58
+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.45
100% Scored inContext 71%
57% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.71 ShotsContext 16.43
4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43
34% On target shareContext 33%
6.86 Shots in the boxContext 10.14
56% Box shareContext 61%
16% ConversionContext 7%
1.75 OffsidesContext 1.83
12.43 Shots allowedContext 12.14
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.43
3.43 BlocksContext 2.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
85% Save rateContext 55%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
446 PassesContext 390
381 Accurate passesContext 328
85% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.54
12.00 FoulsContext 11.00
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.21
80% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.90 ShotsContext 14.90
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
39% On target shareContext 32%
6.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.20
56% Box shareContext 61%
13% ConversionContext 7%
1.83 OffsidesContext 1.89
12.20 Shots allowedContext 13.90
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60
3.00 BlocksContext 2.40
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
78% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
450 PassesContext 388
388 Accurate passesContext 324
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.68
12.00 FoulsContext 11.10
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Juventus3–00.7 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Monza3–12.1 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Venezia2–02.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts
Fiorentina
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel234 km1,373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
  • W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lazio Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Serie A 2026-2027, 23 May7Serie A 2026-2027, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km234 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways957 km1,373 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Juventus (A) 3–0, 18 Oct
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 11G. Isaksen
Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct
43David de Gea(G)
33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez
44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour
25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono
32Mateo Pellegrino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lazio Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Fiorentina Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Fiorentina · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentLazioFiorentina
Venezia W 2–0 A W 4–2 A
Genoa W 1–0 H L 1–2 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Lazio wins2 draws4 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 10%
  • 13 Apr 2026Fiorentina1–0Lazio
  • 7 Jan 2026Lazio2–2Fiorentina
  • 26 Jan 2025Lazio1–2Fiorentina
  • 22 Sep 2024Fiorentina2–1Lazio
  • 26 Feb 2024Fiorentina2–1Lazio
  • 30 Oct 2023Lazio1–0Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LazioFiorentinaForecast
Scored per game 2.001.14
Conceded per game 0.572.43
Match goals 2.573.57
Over 1.5 71%100%
Over 2.5 57%86%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 43%71%
Clean sheets 57%0%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games77
LazioFiorentinaForecast
Scored per game 1.601.10
Conceded per game 1.001.80
Match goals 2.602.90
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LazioFiorentinaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.145.29
Corners conceded5.003.86
Match total10.149.159.38
Over 8.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 9.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.862.00
Opponent cards3.292.14
Match total5.154.143.43
Over 3.586% 6/757% 4/7
Over 4.571% 5/743% 3/7
LazioFiorentinaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.904.50
Corners conceded4.403.90
Match total9.308.409.38
Over 8.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 9.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Over 10.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.201.70
Opponent cards2.801.80
Match total5.003.503.43
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lazio7 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
2 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 76-90
Fiorentina7 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2 0-15
2 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 1 76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Serie A

View all fixtures →
Lazio Fiorentina May 3017:30 Sassuolo Inter May 3017:30 AC Milan Udinese May 3017:30 Cagliari AS Roma May 3017:30 Napoli Atalanta May 3017:30 Juventus Frosinone May 3017:30 Bologna Parma May 3017:30 Lecce Venezia May 3017:30 Como Genoa May 3017:30 Monza Torino May 3017:30