Juventus
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Juventus62.4%fair odds 1.60
Draw22.9%fair odds 4.37
Lazio14.7%fair odds 6.79
Expected goals1.87 – 0.79total 2.67
Likeliest score1–012.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lazio
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Juventus ↓ · Lazio → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Juventus goals, columns Lazio goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–012.4%8.04
- 2–012.2%8.21
- 1–110.9%9.20
- 2–19.7%10.33
- 3–07.6%13.14
- 0–07.5%13.38
- 3–16.0%16.54
- 0–15.0%20.17
- 1–24.1%24.38
- 2–23.8%26.01
Winning margin
18.1%
Juventus by 3+
fair 5.53
19.5%
Juventus by 2
fair 5.14
24.8%
Juventus by 1
fair 4.03
22.9%
Draw
fair 4.37
10.2%
Lazio by 1
fair 9.79
3.5%
Lazio by 2
fair 28.59
1.0%
Lazio by 3+
fair 98.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Juventus goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Lazio goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 62.4% | 63.5% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.9% | 21.8% | +1.1 pp |
| Lazio win | 14.7% | 14.7% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 54.0% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.0% | 50.0% | -3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Juventus | 1.87 | 1.99 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Lazio | 0.79 | 0.85 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Juventus win62.4%1.60
- Draw22.9%4.37
- Lazio win14.7%6.79
- Double chance Juventus or draw85.3%1.17
- Double chance Juventus or Lazio77.1%1.30
- Double chance Lazio or draw37.6%2.66
- Draw no bet Juventus80.9%1.24
- Draw no bet Lazio19.1%5.24
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.1%1.33
- Over 2.549.9%2.00
- Over 3.527.9%3.58
- Over 4.513.3%7.54
- Under 1.524.9%4.02
- Under 2.550.1%2.00
- Under 3.572.1%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes47.0%2.13
- No53.0%1.89
- Yes and over 2.536.1%2.77
- Juventus win and yes24.7%4.05
- Draw and yes15.4%6.49
- Lazio win and yes6.9%14.58
Team goals
- Juventus over 0.584.7%1.18
- Juventus over 1.555.9%1.79
- Juventus over 2.529.0%3.45
- Lazio over 0.554.8%1.82
- Lazio over 1.518.9%5.28
- Lazio over 2.54.7%21.44
- Juventus clean sheet45.2%2.21
- Lazio clean sheet15.3%6.52
- Juventus win to nil37.7%2.65
- Lazio win to nil7.9%12.72
Handicap
- Juventus −1.537.5%2.66
- Juventus −2.518.1%5.53
- Lazio +1.562.5%1.60
- Lazio +2.581.9%1.22
- Lazio −1.54.5%22.18
- Juventus +1.595.5%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored236
Favourite won50.4%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right51.7%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 37.8% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 78 | 44.8% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 56 | 54.7% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 43 | 64.8% | 67.4% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 73.3% | 64.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 215 of 236 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5989 | 0.5817 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.2% | 51.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 215 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 236 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.