Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 7 days of rest, Lazio 9 and had to travel 526 km.
Away travel526 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Juventus62%
Draw23%
Lazio15%
Juventus58%
Draw24%
Lazio19%
Juventus62%
Draw23%
Lazio15%
Juventus55%
Draw25%
Lazio19%
Juventus63%
Draw22%
Lazio15%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 80
Team strength
Juventus
Lazio
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
57
AttackIn forecast
53
76
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusLazio
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
78%
Scored inContext
52%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
15.57
ShotsContext
10.87
5.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
38%
On target shareContext
36%
9.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.59
62%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.79
OffsidesContext
1.45
9.65
Shots allowedContext
12.74
2.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
2.95
BlocksContext
3.22
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
75%
Save rateContext
80%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
520
PassesContext
472
452
Accurate passesContext
405
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.04
FoulsContext
10.65
10.26
Fouls sufferedContext
15.91
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
80%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.70
ShotsContext
11.20
7.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
44%
On target shareContext
34%
10.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
66%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.60
9.20
Shots allowedContext
12.40
2.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.63
BlocksContext
3.70
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
91%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
528
PassesContext
472
458
Accurate passesContext
404
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.60
FoulsContext
10.70
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km420 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel526 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 9Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 526 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 420 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
8T. Koopmeiners
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
32J. Cabal
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
27A. Cambiaso
10K. Yıldız
22W. McKennie
30J. David
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
32D. Cataldi
26T. Bašić
9Pedro
27D. Maldini
18G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Lazio-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-0
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 0.73
Lazio · Away
1.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 0.55
- Conceded
- 0.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Napoli | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Pisa | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| AC Milan | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Inter | W 4–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 45 of 66 · 2.05 per game | 29 of 66 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Juventus wins2 draws3 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.44 – 0.89
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 26 Oct 2025Lazio1–0Juventus
- 10 May 2025Lazio1–1Juventus
- 19 Oct 2024Juventus1–0Lazio
- 30 Mar 2024Lazio1–0Juventus
- 16 Sep 2023Juventus3–1Lazio
- 8 Apr 2023Lazio2–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 1.96 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 26% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 22% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 48% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Juventus | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 7.60 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 6/21 | 10% 2/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.87 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 5.22 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Juventus | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 7.44 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 6.10 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.82
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+40%league 36%
Fouls24.2league 25.6
Penalties0.36league 0.32
Home wins43%league 38%
Juventus7 with this referee
Record2-5-0
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 3
- D5 Oct 25H · AC Milan0–02
- D27 Oct 24A · Inter4–42
- D1 Sep 24H · AS Roma0–02
- D10 Mar 24H · Atalanta2–20
- W7 Jan 24A · Salernitana2–15
Lazio8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W11 Jan 26A · Verona1–01
- L6 Apr 24A · AS Roma0–13
- L26 Feb 24A · Fiorentina1–22
- L4 Feb 24A · Atalanta1–33
- L30 Apr 23A · Inter1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus23 games · scored 39 · conceded 18
6
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Lazio23 games · scored 24 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 22 · conceded 4
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
