Juventus vs Napoli – 25 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 22 Sun, Jan 25 · 17:00 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 6th · 39 pts · 21 played WDWWL

3–0Full time

Napoli 3rd · 43 pts · 21 played WDDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Napoli. Juventus had 7.9 days of rest, Napoli 8 and had to travel 711 km.

Away travel711 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 3

Juventus46%

Draw26%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.18

Juventus43%

Draw27%

Napoli30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Juventus43%

Draw27%

Napoli30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.21

Juventus39%

Draw27%

Napoli35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.32

Juventus47%

Draw26%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.23

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 98

Team strength

Juventus

Napoli

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

57 AttackIn forecast 61

76 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Napoli

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.48

0.81 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.81

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

76% Scored inContext 76%

38% Clean sheetsContext 43%

15.71 ShotsContext 12.71

5.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.85

36% On target shareContext 36%

9.76 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

61% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.69

9.67 Shots allowedContext 10.67

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

2.89 BlocksContext 3.40

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

73% Save rateContext 72%

58% PossessionIn forecast 57%

521 PassesContext 529

454 Accurate passesContext 457

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.67 FoulsContext 11.62

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 12.81

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.70 ShotsContext 12.40

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

37% On target shareContext 30%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

61% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.38

9.50 Shots allowedContext 9.90

2.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

3.38 BlocksContext 3.78

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

92% Save rateContext 72%

57% PossessionIn forecast 60%

532 PassesContext 567

465 Accurate passesContext 493

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.80 FoulsContext 11.00

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,320 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel711 km1,315 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Jan	8Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	711 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,320 km	1,315 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 22W. McKennie

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Meret(G)

4A. Buongiorno 5Juan Jesus 22G. Di Lorenzo

37L. Spinazzola 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 3Miguel Gutiérrez

20E. Elmas 26A. Vergara

19R. Højlund

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus+3.0 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Napoli-2.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 2.20points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.80

Napoli · Away 1.73points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-4
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 0.82

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Juventus	Napoli
Cagliari	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Cremonese	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 A
Sassuolo	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Lecce	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Pisa	W 2–0 A	W 3–2 H
AS Roma	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Bologna	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 A
Torino	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Udinese	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 A
Lazio	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 A
Como	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
AC Milan	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Atalanta	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Verona	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Inter	W 4–3 H	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Parma	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Points	39 of 60 · 1.95 per game	40 of 60 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Juventus wins2 draws6 Napoli wins

Goals per game0.78 – 1.67 Over 2.556% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 22%

7 Dec 2025Napoli2–1Juventus
25 Jan 2025Napoli2–1Juventus
21 Sep 2024Juventus0–0Napoli
3 Mar 2024Napoli2–1Juventus
8 Dec 2023Juventus1–0Napoli
23 Apr 2023Juventus0–1Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	1.48
Conceded per game	0.81	0.81
Match goals	2.33	2.29	2.76
Over 1.5	71%	62%
Over 2.5	38%	43%	52%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	48%	43%	56%
Clean sheets	38%	43%
Failed to score	24%	24%
Games	21	21

	Juventus	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.50
Conceded per game	0.70	0.70
Match goals	2.50	2.20	2.76
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	5.00
Corners conceded	4.00	2.89
Match total	9.63	7.89	8.77
Over 8.5	53% 10/19	32% 6/19
Over 9.5	47% 9/19	21% 4/19
Over 10.5	32% 6/19	21% 4/19
Cards
Cards	1.38	1.38
Opponent cards	2.29	2.10
Match total	3.67	3.48	3.93
Over 3.5	52% 11/21	43% 9/21
Over 4.5	43% 9/21	14% 3/21

	Juventus	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	7.44	6.11
Corners conceded	3.56	1.89
Match total	11.00	8.00	8.77
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	0.90	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	2.30
Match total	2.70	3.60	3.93
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 98 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.80

Red cards0.20league 0.17

Cards 5+39%league 36%

Fouls24.0league 25.6

Penalties0.24league 0.30

Home wins46%league 38%

Juventus10 with this referee

Record4-4-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

W16 Feb 25H · Inter1–01
D29 Dec 24H · Fiorentina2–23
D27 Apr 24H · AC Milan0–00
L3 Mar 24A · Napoli1–24
W23 Dec 23A · Frosinone2–12

Napoli13 with this referee

Record8-2-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds1

W28 Dec 25A · Cremonese2–02
W25 Oct 25H · Inter3–12
W27 Apr 25H · Torino2–00
D16 Mar 25A · Venezia0–01
D10 Nov 24A · Inter1–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.