Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 15). Juventus usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Juventus had 6 days of rest, Pisa 5.1 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days6 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Juventus80%
Draw14%
Pisa6%
Juventus80%
Draw14%
Pisa6%
Juventus79%
Draw14%
Pisa6%
Juventus74%
Draw17%
Pisa9%
Juventus82%
Draw12%
Pisa6%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
Juventus
Pisa
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
57
AttackIn forecast
15
76
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusPisa
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
78%
Scored inContext
48%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
15.70
ShotsContext
9.81
5.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.32
38%
On target shareContext
28%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.46
62%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.15
Shots allowedContext
14.59
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.92
BlocksContext
4.08
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
70%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
516
PassesContext
313
448
Accurate passesContext
239
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.56
FoulsContext
13.19
10.15
Fouls sufferedContext
11.59
1.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.90
6.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
36%
11.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
67%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.50
BlocksContext
3.11
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
67%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
464
PassesContext
315
390
Accurate passesContext
236
84%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.70
FoulsContext
14.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel264 km136 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,051 km | 136 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
3Bremer
4F. Gatti
15P. Kalulu
27A. Cambiaso
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
22W. McKennie
10K. Yıldız
7Francisco Conceição
30J. David
Pisa
Confirmed XI
12Nícolas(G)
26Francesco Coppola
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
8M. Højholt
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
17R. Durosinmi
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Pisa-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-1
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 0.92
Pisa · Away
0.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-8-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | D 3–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Como | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Inter | L 2–3 AW 4–3 H | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| Lazio | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Napoli | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 3–0 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Lecce | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 44 of 78 · 1.69 per game | 15 of 78 · 0.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Juventus wins0 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 27 Dec 2025Pisa0–2Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.37 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 41% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 44% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 52% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Juventus | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.12 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.72 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 8.88 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 11/25 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 6/25 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.48 | 3.96 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Juventus | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 8.90 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.30 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 3.77
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+33%league 37%
Fouls26.9league 25.2
Penalties0.33league 0.31
Home wins44%league 38%
JuventusNo previous matches with this referee.
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Dec 25A · Lecce0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus27 games · scored 46 · conceded 28
6
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
6
6
31-45
7
4
46-60
10
4
61-75
12
7
76-90
Pisa27 games · scored 20 · conceded 44
4
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
12
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
13
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
