Juventus
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Juventus80.0%fair odds 1.25
Draw13.8%fair odds 7.25
Pisa6.2%fair odds 16.19
Expected goals2.66 – 0.63total 3.30
Likeliest score2–013.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Pisa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Juventus ↓ · Pisa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Juventus goals, columns Pisa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.1%7.62
- 3–011.6%8.59
- 1–09.5%10.49
- 2–18.3%12.02
- 4–07.8%12.90
- 3–17.4%13.55
- 1–16.6%15.20
- 4–14.9%20.36
- 5–04.1%24.23
- 0–04.0%24.78
Winning margin
37.2%
Juventus by 3+
fair 2.69
22.3%
Juventus by 2
fair 4.49
20.5%
Juventus by 1
fair 4.87
13.8%
Draw
fair 7.25
4.6%
Pisa by 1
fair 21.56
1.3%
Pisa by 2
fair 79.29
0.3%
Pisa by 3+
fair 363.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Juventus goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
28%4+
Pisa goals
53%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 80.0% | 81.6% | -1.6 pp |
| Draw | 13.8% | 12.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Pisa win | 6.2% | 6.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 70.1% | -6.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.0% | 48.4% | -4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Juventus | 2.66 | 2.91 | -0.25 |
| Expected goals Pisa | 0.63 | 0.71 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Juventus win80.0%1.25
- Draw13.8%7.25
- Pisa win6.2%16.19
- Double chance Juventus or draw93.8%1.07
- Double chance Juventus or Pisa86.2%1.16
- Double chance Pisa or draw20.0%5.01
- Draw no bet Juventus92.8%1.08
- Draw no bet Pisa7.2%13.96
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.584.4%1.18
- Over 2.564.0%1.56
- Over 3.541.9%2.39
- Over 4.523.7%4.23
- Under 1.515.6%6.42
- Under 2.536.0%2.78
- Under 3.558.1%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes44.0%2.27
- No56.0%1.79
- Yes and over 2.537.4%2.67
- Juventus win and yes31.0%3.23
- Draw and yes9.8%10.24
- Pisa win and yes3.2%30.97
Team goals
- Juventus over 0.593.0%1.08
- Juventus over 1.574.4%1.34
- Juventus over 2.549.7%2.01
- Pisa over 0.546.9%2.13
- Pisa over 1.513.3%7.51
- Pisa over 2.52.7%37.61
- Juventus clean sheet53.1%1.88
- Pisa clean sheet7.0%14.32
- Juventus win to nil49.0%2.04
- Pisa win to nil2.9%33.95
Handicap
- Juventus −1.559.5%1.68
- Juventus −2.537.2%2.69
- Pisa +1.540.5%2.47
- Pisa +2.562.8%1.59
- Pisa −1.51.5%65.10
- Juventus +1.598.5%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored273
Favourite won50.9%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right52.0%
BTTS called right52.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 37.8% | 36.6% |
| 40–50% | 87 | 44.9% | 44.8% |
| 50–60% | 64 | 54.7% | 46.9% |
| 60–70% | 54 | 64.9% | 68.5% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 73.1% | 65.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 273 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5963 | 0.5807 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.4% | 52.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 273 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.