KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
5th · 30 pts · 19 played
WLWWL
First leg3–1
1–1Full time
Dender
16th · 12 pts · 19 played
WDWLL
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 19). KV Mechelen had 6.1 days of rest, Dender 7.1 and had to travel 32 km.
Away travel32 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
KV Mechelen55%
Draw25%
Dender20%
KV Mechelen55%
Draw24%
Dender20%
KV Mechelen55%
Draw25%
Dender20%
KV Mechelen48%
Draw26%
Dender26%
KV Mechelen55%
Draw24%
Dender20%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
KV MechelenDender
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
18
AttackIn forecast
15
23
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenDender
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.79
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.74
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
84%
Scored inContext
58%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.37
ShotsContext
9.47
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.32
38%
On target shareContext
35%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.68
67%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.19
14.53
Shots allowedContext
14.32
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
4.33
BlocksContext
3.59
4.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
88%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
395
PassesContext
385
323
Accurate passesContext
295
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.63
FoulsContext
10.68
10.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
34%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
68%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.60
Shots allowedContext
16.30
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.89
BlocksContext
4.25
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
84%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
410
PassesContext
354
338
Accurate passesContext
267
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.50
FoulsContext
12.40
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel32 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
23Moncef Zekri
6F. Hammar
17Mathis Servais
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
21H. Özdemir
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
44L. De Fougerolles
5L. Marijnissen
24M. Viltard
16R. Květ
17N. Mbamba
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.11
Dender · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 27 of 54 · 1.50 per game | 12 of 54 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins0 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Dender1–3KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 0.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.37 | 2.53 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 53% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 42% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| KV Mechelen | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.05 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.94 | 8.00 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 12/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 10/19 | 11% 2/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.37 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.42 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 3.21 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 6/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| KV Mechelen | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.77 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.80
Red cards0.50league 0.19
Cards 5+17%league 41%
Fouls23.0league 22.8
Penalties0.33league 0.30
Home wins50%league 41%
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière3–21
Dender2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds3
- L5 Oct 25A · Genk1–26
- L8 Aug 25A · St. Truiden0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen19 games · scored 24 · conceded 21
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
Dender19 games · scored 15 · conceded 33
4
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
4
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
