Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lazio had 8.1 days of rest, Como 4 and had to travel 515 km.
Away travel515 kmRest days8.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Lazio44%
Draw27%
Como29%
Lazio46%
Draw26%
Como28%
Lazio45%
Draw27%
Como28%
Lazio37%
Draw28%
Como35%
Lazio45%
Draw27%
Como28%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 65
Team strength
Lazio
Como
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
53
AttackIn forecast
72
63
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioComo
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
55%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.15
ShotsContext
13.65
4.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.95
Shots in the boxContext
8.45
58%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.65
Shots allowedContext
9.85
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.74
2.90
BlocksContext
3.31
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
83%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
471
PassesContext
503
404
Accurate passesContext
436
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.70
FoulsContext
13.95
16.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.20
ShotsContext
13.80
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
39%
On target shareContext
38%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
56%
Box shareContext
67%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.43
11.30
Shots allowedContext
8.70
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.20
BlocksContext
2.86
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
79%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
503
PassesContext
525
435
Accurate passesContext
458
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.70
FoulsContext
12.90
15.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km826 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel515 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 515 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 826 km | 511 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
32D. Cataldi
21R. Belahyane
10M. Zaccagni
20P. Ratkov
22M. Cancellieri
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
6M. Caqueret
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
10N. Paz
17Jesús Rodríguez
20M. Baturina
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Como+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.90
Como · Away
1.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Parma | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Juventus | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | D 3–3 H | W 5–1 A |
| Genoa | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 28 of 57 · 1.47 per game | 31 of 57 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Lazio wins1 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 24 Aug 2025Como2–0Lazio
- 10 Jan 2025Lazio1–1Como
- 31 Oct 2024Como1–5Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.85 | 2.20 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 35% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 30% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Lazio | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.60 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.65 | 3.41 | |
| Match total | 7.94 | 7.41 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 6/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 2/17 | 18% 3/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 4.45 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 15/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 13/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Lazio | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 7.78 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.80
Red cards0.31league 0.17
Cards 5+34%league 36%
Fouls24.3league 25.7
Penalties0.12league 0.30
Home wins37%league 37%
Lazio6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds4
- D7 Dec 25H · Bologna1–14
- L25 May 25H · Lecce0–13
- W19 Jan 25A · Verona3–02
- W27 Sep 23H · Torino2–01
- W26 Aug 22H · Inter3–12
Como1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Oct 24H · Parma1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio20 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
8
3
76-90
Como19 games · scored 26 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
