Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were clear favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Lazio had 7 days of rest, Cremonese 7.1 and had to travel 413 km.
Away travel413 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lazio65%
Draw22%
Cremonese13%
Lazio67%
Draw20%
Cremonese13%
Lazio65%
Draw22%
Cremonese13%
Lazio57%
Draw25%
Cremonese18%
Lazio66%
Draw20%
Cremonese13%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 65
Team strength
Lazio
Cremonese
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
53
AttackIn forecast
16
63
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioCremonese
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
53%
Scored inContext
73%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.27
ShotsContext
8.33
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
39%
On target shareContext
40%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.36
59%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.36
13.27
Shots allowedContext
15.87
4.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.64
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
85%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
465
PassesContext
368
397
Accurate passesContext
287
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.60
FoulsContext
12.07
16.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
9.30
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
43%
On target shareContext
39%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
54%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.40
BlocksContext
4.67
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
86%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
475
PassesContext
365
406
Accurate passesContext
279
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.10
FoulsContext
11.90
16.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel413 km367 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 413 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 737 km | 367 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
5M. Vecino
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
9Pedro
11V. Castellanos
22M. Cancellieri
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
55F. Folino
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
11D. Johnsen
33A. Grassi
38W. Bondo
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Cremonese+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
2.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 0.71
Cremonese · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Torino | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genoa | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Verona | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 42 · 1.36 per game | 19 of 42 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Lazio wins0 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 28 May 2023Lazio3–2Cremonese
- 18 Sep 2022Cremonese0–4Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.73 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.87 | 2.40 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 13% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Lazio | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.60 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.62 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 7.93 | 9.87 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 8% 1/13 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 3.87 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Lazio | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 10.70 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.70 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.49league 3.87
Red cards0.25league 0.16
Cards 5+52%league 38%
Fouls25.7league 25.9
Penalties0.38league 0.31
Home wins37%league 40%
Lazio9 with this referee
Record6-1-2
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.7
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds2
- L5 Jan 25A · AS Roma0–26
- W31 Oct 24A · Como5–15
- D4 May 24A · Monza2–27
- W21 May 23A · Udinese1–01
- W3 Mar 23A · Napoli1–02
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D3 May 23A · AC Milan1–14
- D4 Sep 22H · Sassuolo0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio15 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
Cremonese15 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
6
1
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
