Lazio vs Fiorentina – 7 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 19 Wed, Jan 7 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 9th · 24 pts · 18 played DWDDL

2–2Full time

Fiorentina 19th · 12 pts · 18 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were slight favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 41). Lazio had 3.3 days of rest, Fiorentina 3.2 and had to travel 234 km.

Away travel234 kmRest days3.3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lazio51%

Draw26%

Fiorentina23%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.98

Lazio53%

Draw25%

Fiorentina22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Lazio51%

Draw26%

Fiorentina22%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.97

Lazio44%

Draw28%

Fiorentina28%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.10

Lazio53%

Draw25%

Fiorentina22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.05

Over 2.5 48% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 84

Team strength

Lazio

Fiorentina

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

53 AttackIn forecast 42

63 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

Fiorentina

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

50% Scored inContext 67%

50% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.83 ShotsContext 13.50

4.12 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.28

36% On target shareContext 24%

6.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

58% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.44 OffsidesContext 2.54

13.06 Shots allowedContext 12.67

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.00 BlocksContext 2.94

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

84% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

461 PassesContext 414

395 Accurate passesContext 346

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.89 FoulsContext 12.72

16.83 Fouls sufferedContext 16.28

2.06 Yellow cardsContext 2.22

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

50% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 15.80

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 27%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

55% Box shareContext 64%

6% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.57

12.10 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.60 BlocksContext 4.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

85% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 55%

490 PassesContext 464

423 Accurate passesContext 399

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.80 FoulsContext 11.30

16.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km936 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel234 km270 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan	3.2Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	234 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	936 km	270 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

3L. Pellegrini 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 29M. Lazzari

26T. Bašić 32D. Cataldi 8M. Guendouzi

10M. Zaccagni 22M. Cancellieri 18G. Isaksen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora

10A. Guðmundsson 91R. Piccoli 65F. Parisi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fiorentina+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 1.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 0.78

Fiorentina · Away 0.44points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-5
Scored: 0.56
Conceded: 1.56

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lazio	Fiorentina
Napoli	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	W 5–1 H
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Parma	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Bologna	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Lecce	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 H
Inter	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Juventus	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Atalanta	D 0–0 A	L 0–2 A
Torino	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Genoa	W 3–0 A	D 2–2 A
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Sassuolo	L 0–1 A	L 1–3 A
Verona	W 4–0 H	L 1–2 H
Como	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Points	24 of 54 · 1.33 per game	12 of 54 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Lazio wins1 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.63 – 0.88 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

26 Jan 2025Lazio1–2Fiorentina
22 Sep 2024Fiorentina2–1Lazio
26 Feb 2024Fiorentina2–1Lazio
30 Oct 2023Lazio1–0Fiorentina
29 Jan 2023Lazio1–1Fiorentina
10 Oct 2022Fiorentina0–4Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.78	1.56
Match goals	1.78	2.56	2.58
Over 1.5	56%	72%
Over 2.5	17%	56%	48%
Over 3.5	11%	28%
Both teams scored	17%	61%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	50%	33%
Games	18	18

	Lazio	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.10
Conceded per game	0.70	1.60
Match goals	1.40	2.70	2.58
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.27	4.67
Corners conceded	3.87	4.39
Match total	8.14	9.06	8.85
Over 8.5	47% 7/15	61% 11/18
Over 9.5	33% 5/15	56% 10/18
Over 10.5	13% 2/15	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	2.39	2.28
Opponent cards	2.83	2.22
Match total	5.22	4.50	3.99
Over 3.5	78% 14/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	67% 12/18	56% 10/18

	Lazio	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.40
Corners conceded	3.44	4.40
Match total	7.88	9.80	8.85
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.40
Opponent cards	2.60	2.40
Match total	5.50	4.80	3.99
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.24league 3.86

Red cards0.15league 0.17

Cards 5+43%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 25.8

Penalties0.45league 0.30

Home wins38%league 38%

Lazio7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L21 Sep 25H · AS Roma0–12
D13 Apr 25H · AS Roma1–14
W29 Sep 24A · Torino3–23
L3 Sep 22H · Napoli1–24
D22 Jan 22H · Atalanta0–00

Fiorentina7 with this referee

Record1-2-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

L29 Oct 25A · Inter0–32
D24 Aug 25A · Cagliari1–12
W27 Oct 24H · AS Roma5–12
D25 Aug 24H · Venezia0–01
L13 Nov 22A · AC Milan1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.