Lazio vs Napoli – 4 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 4 · 11:30 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 9th · 24 pts · 17 played LDWDD

0–2Full time

Napoli 3rd · 34 pts · 16 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 58). Lazio had 7.8 days of rest, Napoli 6.9 and had to travel 187 km.

Away travel187 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lazio35%

Draw28%

Napoli37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.29

Lazio35%

Draw27%

Napoli38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Lazio34%

Draw28%

Napoli37%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.29

Lazio28%

Draw28%

Napoli44%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.45

Lazio35%

Draw27%

Napoli38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.37

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 100

Team strength

Lazio

Napoli

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

53 AttackIn forecast 61

63 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

Napoli

1.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.81

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

53% Scored inContext 75%

53% Clean sheetsContext 38%

11.18 ShotsContext 12.94

4.12 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.27

37% On target shareContext 38%

6.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.25

58% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.80

13.00 Shots allowedContext 10.63

4.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.63

3.00 BlocksContext 3.07

3.65 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.07

86% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 56%

468 PassesContext 507

400 Accurate passesContext 434

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.94 FoulsContext 12.00

17.06 Fouls sufferedContext 13.13

1.94 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.18 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 16 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

60% Scored inContext 50%

60% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.20

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

40% On target shareContext 38%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

57% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.63

11.90 Shots allowedContext 10.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.60 BlocksContext 3.33

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

91% Save rateContext 83%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

488 PassesContext 492

420 Accurate passesContext 416

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.90 FoulsContext 12.40

17.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km936 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel187 km1,176 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	187 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	936 km	1,176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.3	3.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

3L. Pellegrini 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

26T. Bašić 32D. Cataldi 8M. Guendouzi

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 22M. Cancellieri

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

5Juan Jesus 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 8S. McTominay 21M. Politano

20E. Elmas 7David Neres

19R. Højlund

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Napoli-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 1.88points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-1
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 0.63

Napoli · Away 1.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-4
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 0.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	Lazio	Napoli
Udinese	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Bologna	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Lecce	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Inter	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 H
Juventus	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Atalanta	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 H
Torino	D 3–3 H	L 0–1 A
Genoa	W 3–0 A	W 2–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Sassuolo	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 A
Como	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Points	18 of 45 · 1.20 per game	31 of 45 · 2.07 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Lazio wins2 draws3 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.38 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

15 Feb 2025Lazio2–2Napoli
8 Dec 2024Napoli0–1Lazio
28 Jan 2024Lazio0–0Napoli
2 Sep 2023Napoli1–2Lazio
3 Mar 2023Napoli0–1Lazio
3 Sep 2022Lazio1–2Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.06	1.50
Conceded per game	0.71	0.81
Match goals	1.76	2.31	2.54
Over 1.5	53%	63%
Over 2.5	18%	44%	47%
Over 3.5	12%	25%
Both teams scored	18%	44%	52%
Clean sheets	53%	38%
Failed to score	47%	25%
Games	17	16

	Lazio	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.20
Conceded per game	0.50	0.70
Match goals	1.30	1.90	2.54
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	5.00
Corners conceded	3.71	3.07
Match total	8.14	8.07	8.87
Over 8.5	50% 7/14	36% 5/14
Over 9.5	36% 5/14	29% 4/14
Over 10.5	14% 2/14	29% 4/14
Cards
Cards	2.18	1.50
Opponent cards	2.88	1.81
Match total	5.06	3.31	4.02
Over 3.5	76% 13/17	44% 7/16
Over 4.5	65% 11/17	13% 2/16

	Lazio	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	4.89
Corners conceded	3.33	2.78
Match total	7.77	7.67	8.87
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.10
Opponent cards	2.80	1.60
Match total	5.30	3.70	4.02
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.53league 3.90

Red cards0.24league 0.16

Cards 5+50%league 38%

Fouls25.1league 25.8

Penalties0.15league 0.30

Home wins35%league 39%

Lazio13 with this referee

Record3-7-3 Cards · opp.3.1 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds3

D30 Oct 25A · Pisa0–02
D10 May 25H · Juventus1–15
D31 Mar 25H · Torino1–13
D15 Feb 25H · Napoli2–22
D28 Dec 24H · Atalanta1–12

Napoli8 with this referee

Record4-3-1 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Nov 25A · AS Roma1–03
W3 May 25A · Lecce1–00
D7 Apr 25A · Bologna1–13
D15 Feb 25A · Lazio2–22
W24 Nov 24H · AS Roma1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.