Lazio vs Sassuolo – 9 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 28 Mon, Mar 9 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 11th · 34 pts · 27 played WDLDL

2–1Full time

Sassuolo 9th · 38 pts · 27 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were slight favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Lazio had 8.1 days of rest, Sassuolo 8.2 and had to travel 347 km.

Away travel347 kmRest days8.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lazio48%

Draw28%

Sassuolo25%

Expected goals 1.45 – 0.97

Lazio53%

Draw25%

Sassuolo22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.03

Lazio47%

Draw28%

Sassuolo25%

Expected goals 1.44 – 0.97

Lazio41%

Draw29%

Sassuolo30%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.09

Lazio49%

Draw26%

Sassuolo25%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.08

Over 2.5 44% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 10

Team strength

Lazio

Sassuolo

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

53 AttackIn forecast 41

63 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

Sassuolo

0.96 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.26

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

48% Scored inContext 67%

44% Clean sheetsContext 22%

11.04 ShotsContext 10.56

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.81

35% On target shareContext 36%

6.77 Shots in the boxContext 6.93

58% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.33 Shots allowedContext 14.07

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.56 BlocksContext 3.48

3.26 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.84

77% Save rateContext 72%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

479 PassesContext 380

412 Accurate passesContext 312

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.22 FoulsContext 11.59

15.22 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

40% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 10.80

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

32% On target shareContext 35%

6.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

60% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.90 Shots allowedContext 16.10

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.50 BlocksContext 4.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

62% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

498 PassesContext 375

431 Accurate passesContext 310

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.00 FoulsContext 9.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sassuolo

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel347 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar	8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	347 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,051 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40E. Motta(G)

17Nuno Tavares 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 32D. Cataldi 7O. Dele-Bashiru

10M. Zaccagni 27D. Maldini 18G. Isaksen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

23U. Garcia 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 25W. Coulibaly

42K. Thorstvedt 35L. Lipani 90I. Koné

45A. Laurienté 8M. Nzola 10D. Berardi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Sassuolo-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 1.46points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-4
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.23

Sassuolo · Away 1.38points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 5-3-5
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.23

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lazio	Sassuolo
Torino	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H	L 0–1 H
Cagliari	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A
Juventus	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–3 H
Genoa	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A	L 1–2 H
Lecce	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 A
Como	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Verona	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Fiorentina	D 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Napoli	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 HL 2–3 A
Parma	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Bologna	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Inter	L 0–2 A	L 0–5 HL 1–2 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Points	34 of 78 · 1.31 per game	35 of 78 · 1.35 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Lazio wins1 draws2 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.43 – 0.71 Over 2.529% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 14%

14 Sep 2025Sassuolo1–0Lazio
26 May 2024Lazio1–1Sassuolo
21 Oct 2023Sassuolo0–2Lazio
3 May 2023Lazio2–0Sassuolo
15 Jan 2023Sassuolo0–2Lazio
2 Apr 2022Lazio2–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.96	1.26
Conceded per game	1.00	1.33
Match goals	1.96	2.59	2.43
Over 1.5	59%	74%
Over 2.5	26%	56%	44%
Over 3.5	19%	26%
Both teams scored	22%	48%	48%
Clean sheets	44%	22%
Failed to score	52%	33%
Games	27	27

	Lazio	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.43
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	44%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	60%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	3.59
Corners conceded	3.79	4.70
Match total	8.04	8.29	8.76
Over 8.5	46% 11/24	56% 15/27
Over 9.5	29% 7/24	37% 10/27
Over 10.5	13% 3/24	19% 5/27
Cards
Cards	2.22	2.44
Opponent cards	2.85	1.96
Match total	5.07	4.40	3.93
Over 3.5	74% 20/27	67% 18/27
Over 4.5	67% 18/27	41% 11/27

	Lazio	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.20
Corners conceded	3.90	5.40
Match total	7.90	9.60	8.76
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	2.80	1.80
Match total	5.10	4.00	3.93
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.76

Red cards0.10league 0.19

Cards 5+10%league 36%

Fouls22.7league 25.2

Penalties0.20league 0.31

Home wins30%league 39%

Lazio1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W23 Nov 25H · Lecce2–01

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W31 Jan 26A · Pisa3–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.