LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
LE Havre were slight favourites.
LE Havre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Paris FC. LE Havre had 7 days of rest, Paris FC 7.9 and had to travel 178 km.
Away travel178 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
LE Havre52%
Draw25%
Paris FC23%
LE Havre51%
Draw25%
Paris FC24%
LE Havre50%
Draw26%
Paris FC24%
LE Havre44%
Draw27%
Paris FC29%
LE Havre52%
Draw25%
Paris FC23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 67
Team strength
LE Havre
Paris FC
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
20
AttackIn forecast
46
22
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreParis FC
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
64%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.29
ShotsContext
12.43
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.21
58%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.64
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
3.42
BlocksContext
3.54
2.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
62%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
382
PassesContext
504
312
Accurate passesContext
436
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.50
FoulsContext
11.00
12.79
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.80
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
30%
On target shareContext
25%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
58%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.00
BlocksContext
2.90
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
65%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
379
PassesContext
511
310
Accurate passesContext
441
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.90
FoulsContext
11.80
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km409 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 409 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
14R. Ndiaye
15A. Seko
26S. Ebonog
45I. Soumaré
70M. Samatta
11Godson Kyeremeh
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
2T. Ollila
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
14H. Traoré
27M. Simon
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
4V. Marchetti
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Paris FC-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Paris FC · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–1 H | L 2–4 A |
| Nantes | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | L 2–6 A | L 2–5 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Metz | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Monaco | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 14 of 36 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.36 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| LE Havre | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.71 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 3/12 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 3.79 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 4/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| LE Havre | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.20 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.71
Red cards0.43league 0.33
Cards 5+46%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 24.0
Penalties0.34league 0.47
Home wins42%league 51%
LE Havre1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Aug 25A · Monaco1–31
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Oct 25H · Nantes1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre14 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Paris FC14 games · scored 21 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
