Lecce vs Fiorentina – 20 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 33 Mon, Apr 20 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 18th · 27 pts · 32 played WLLLL

1–1Full time

Fiorentina 15th · 35 pts · 32 played DWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 22). Fiorentina usually keep the ball (51% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lecce had 8.1 days of rest, Fiorentina 7 and had to travel 687 km.

Away travel687 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lecce27%

Draw29%

Fiorentina44%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.33

Lecce27%

Draw26%

Fiorentina47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Lecce26%

Draw29%

Fiorentina44%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.32

Lecce21%

Draw28%

Fiorentina51%

Expected goals 0.87 – 1.49

Lecce28%

Draw27%

Fiorentina45%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.47

Over 2.5 40% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 74

Team strength

Lecce

Fiorentina

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

36 AttackIn forecast 42

30 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Fiorentina

0.66 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

47% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 22%

9.50 ShotsContext 13.00

2.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.61

23% On target shareContext 27%

5.42 Shots in the boxContext 8.19

54% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 9%

1.65 OffsidesContext 2.36

12.75 Shots allowedContext 12.66

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.73

3.50 BlocksContext 3.31

3.03 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

67% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 52%

320 PassesContext 426

241 Accurate passesContext 361

75% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.53 FoulsContext 11.94

14.09 Fouls sufferedContext 15.81

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.60 ShotsContext 12.50

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

23% On target shareContext 29%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

53% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.20

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.20 BlocksContext 2.90

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

56% Save rateContext 70%

40% PossessionIn forecast 52%

297 PassesContext 444

218 Accurate passesContext 377

74% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.50 FoulsContext 11.80

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,450 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel687 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr	7Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	687 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,450 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5	5.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

79Oumar Ngom 20Y. Ramadani

11K. N’Dri 29L. Coulibaly 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 6L. Ranieri 5M. Pongračić 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora

10A. Guðmundsson 91R. Piccoli 17J. Harrison

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Fiorentina+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-8
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.38

Fiorentina · Away 1.06points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Fiorentina
Bologna	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Atalanta	L 0–3 HL 1–4 A	L 0–2 A
AS Roma	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Napoli	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H
Cremonese	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
Como	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H
Inter	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Udinese	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	L 0–3 AW 5–1 H
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Juventus	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Pisa	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Verona	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 A
Genoa	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Points	24 of 93 · 0.77 per game	35 of 93 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Lecce wins2 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.86 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets14% · 43%

2 Nov 2025Fiorentina0–1Lecce
28 Feb 2025Fiorentina1–0Lecce
20 Oct 2024Lecce0–6Fiorentina
2 Feb 2024Lecce3–2Fiorentina
27 Aug 2023Fiorentina2–2Lecce
19 Mar 2023Fiorentina1–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.66	1.16
Conceded per game	1.41	1.38
Match goals	2.06	2.53	2.30
Over 1.5	63%	72%
Over 2.5	38%	56%	40%
Over 3.5	13%	25%
Both teams scored	34%	63%	46%
Clean sheets	25%	22%
Failed to score	53%	25%
Games	32	32

	Lecce	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.00
Match goals	2.40	2.30	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	46%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.26	4.45
Corners conceded	5.61	4.61
Match total	9.87	9.06	8.71
Over 8.5	74% 23/31	58% 18/31
Over 9.5	61% 19/31	52% 16/31
Over 10.5	45% 14/31	26% 8/31
Cards
Cards	1.66	2.38
Opponent cards	1.47	2.38
Match total	3.13	4.76	3.89
Over 3.5	41% 13/32	72% 23/32
Over 4.5	22% 7/32	63% 20/32

	Lecce	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.11
Corners conceded	6.33	4.11
Match total	10.11	8.22	8.71
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.60
Opponent cards	1.20	1.90
Match total	2.30	4.50	3.89
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 74 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.99league 3.71

Red cards0.16league 0.19

Cards 5+64%league 35%

Fouls24.9league 24.8

Penalties0.18league 0.29

Home wins36%league 40%

Lecce5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L14 Jan 26A · Inter0–11
D11 May 25A · Verona1–10
L14 Mar 25A · Genoa1–22
W16 Mar 24A · Salernitana1–03
D12 May 23A · Lazio2–25

Fiorentina5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

L30 Mar 24H · AC Milan1–22
W12 Nov 23H · Bologna2–12
W1 Apr 23A · Inter1–03
L10 Oct 22H · Lazio0–44
W17 Jan 22H · Genoa6–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.