Lecce vs Fiorentina – 16 May 2027

Serie A Gameweek 36 Sun, May 16 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 12th · 9 pts · 7 played LWLLW

VS— Compare

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel687 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Lecce—%

Draw—%

Fiorentina—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Lecce)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fiorentina 5 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Lecce

Fiorentina

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

36 AttackIn forecast 42

30 DefenceIn forecast 34

35 Form indexContext 20

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Fiorentina

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

57% Scored inContext 71%

29% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.14 ShotsContext 16.43

4.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43

42% On target shareContext 33%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 10.14

64% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 7%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.83

14.86 Shots allowedContext 12.14

6.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.43

2.83 BlocksContext 2.00

4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

69% Save rateContext 55%

40% PossessionIn forecast 47%

346 PassesContext 390

271 Accurate passesContext 328

78% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.54

12.86 FoulsContext 11.00

9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.40 ShotsContext 14.90

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

43% On target shareContext 32%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

68% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.89

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.90

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

2.67 BlocksContext 2.40

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

69% Save rateContext 70%

37% PossessionIn forecast 47%

312 PassesContext 388

239 Accurate passesContext 324

77% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.10 FoulsContext 11.10

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce LWLLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,851 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Udinese3–00.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Bologna1–21.1 xPts
L20 SepA · AC Milan0–30.5 xPts
W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel687 km160 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 9 May	7Serie A 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	687 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,851 km	160 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Udinese (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

14Y. Maleh 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly

7A. Fatah 69W. Geubbels 11K. N’Dri

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Fiorentina Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.67

Fiorentina · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Fiorentina
AS Roma	L 0–4 H	L 0–4 A
Venezia	W 2–0 A	W 4–2 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Lecce wins3 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.75 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

20 Apr 2026Lecce1–1Fiorentina
2 Nov 2025Fiorentina0–1Lecce
28 Feb 2025Fiorentina1–0Lecce
20 Oct 2024Lecce0–6Fiorentina
2 Feb 2024Lecce3–2Fiorentina
27 Aug 2023Fiorentina2–2Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Fiorentina
Scored per game	1.29	1.14
Conceded per game	1.71	2.43
Match goals	3.00	3.57
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	71%	86%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	29%	71%
Clean sheets	29%	0%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

	Lecce	Fiorentina
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	1.80
Match goals	2.80	2.90
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	5.29
Corners conceded	3.29	3.86
Match total	7.86	9.15	9.38
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	2.00
Opponent cards	0.86	2.14
Match total	2.72	4.14	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Lecce	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.50
Corners conceded	3.80	3.90
Match total	8.00	8.40	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	0.80	1.80
Match total	2.80	3.50	3.43
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.