Lecce vs Lazio – 24 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 22 Sat, Jan 24 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 18th · 17 pts · 21 played DLLLL

0–0Full time

Lazio 9th · 28 pts · 21 played DLDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were slight favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 21). Lecce had 6 days of rest, Lazio 5 and had to travel 504 km.

Away travel504 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d3 · 2

Lecce24%

Draw26%

Lazio50%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.61

Lecce24%

Draw26%

Lazio50%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.65

Lecce24%

Draw26%

Lazio50%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.61

Lecce19%

Draw24%

Lazio57%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.81

Lecce25%

Draw24%

Lazio51%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.79

Over 2.5 50% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 72

Team strength

Lecce

Lazio

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

36 AttackIn forecast 53

30 DefenceIn forecast 63

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Lazio

0.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

48% Scored inContext 52%

29% Clean sheetsContext 48%

9.29 ShotsContext 11.00

2.47 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

24% On target shareContext 37%

5.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

55% Box shareContext 56%

7% ConversionContext 9%

1.36 OffsidesContext 1.40

13.00 Shots allowedContext 12.57

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.19

3.71 BlocksContext 2.86

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

71% Save rateContext 81%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

330 PassesContext 467

251 Accurate passesContext 400

76% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.38 FoulsContext 10.86

13.81 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

1.81 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.19

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

40% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.70 ShotsContext 12.20

1.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

16% On target shareContext 38%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

55% Box shareContext 54%

6% ConversionContext 7%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.60

14.70 Shots allowedContext 11.60

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.60 BlocksContext 3.30

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

73% Save rateContext 78%

40% PossessionIn forecast 52%

317 PassesContext 493

237 Accurate passesContext 426

75% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.40 FoulsContext 11.00

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,701 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lazio

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel504 km826 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan	5Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	504 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,701 km	826 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 5J. Siebert 44Tiago Gabriel 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 16O. Gandelman 50S. Pierotti

9N. Štulić

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

77A. Marušić 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 29M. Lazzari

24K. Taylor 5M. Vecino 26T. Bašić

10M. Zaccagni 19B. Dia 22M. Cancellieri

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lazio-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-6
Scored: 0.64
Conceded: 1.36

Lazio · Away 1.20points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-4
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 0.70

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Lazio
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Inter	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Juventus	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Como	L 0–3 H	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A
Pisa	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Cremonese	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Torino	W 2–1 H	D 3–3 H
Verona	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
Fiorentina	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Napoli	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Udinese	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Bologna	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Atalanta	L 1–4 A	D 0–0 A
Genoa	D 0–0 A	W 3–0 A
Points	17 of 60 · 0.85 per game	25 of 60 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Lecce wins1 draws3 Lazio wins

Goals per game1.14 – 1.29 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets14% · 29%

23 Nov 2025Lazio2–0Lecce
25 May 2025Lazio0–1Lecce
21 Dec 2024Lecce1–2Lazio
14 Jan 2024Lazio1–0Lecce
20 Aug 2023Lecce2–1Lazio
12 May 2023Lazio2–2Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	0.62	1.00
Conceded per game	1.38	0.90
Match goals	2.00	1.90	2.67
Over 1.5	57%	57%
Over 2.5	33%	24%	50%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	33%	19%	53%
Clean sheets	29%	48%
Failed to score	52%	48%
Games	21	21

	Lecce	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.80
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.80	2.67
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	20%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	60%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.52	4.22
Corners conceded	5.52	3.56
Match total	10.04	7.78	8.79
Over 8.5	81% 17/21	44% 8/18
Over 9.5	67% 14/21	33% 6/18
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	11% 2/18
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.43
Opponent cards	1.62	2.90
Match total	3.52	5.33	3.95
Over 3.5	52% 11/21	76% 16/21
Over 4.5	33% 7/21	67% 14/21

	Lecce	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.78
Corners conceded	6.20	3.00
Match total	10.00	7.78	8.79
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	3.30
Opponent cards	1.30	2.90
Match total	3.50	6.20	3.95
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Chiffi 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.82

Red cards0.22league 0.16

Cards 5+38%league 37%

Fouls22.7league 25.6

Penalties0.19league 0.31

Home wins42%league 37%

Lecce6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W11 Jan 25A · Empoli3–13
L7 Dec 24A · AS Roma1–43
L10 Mar 24H · Verona0–13
L23 Apr 23A · AC Milan0–20
D8 Jan 23A · Spezia0–01

Lazio4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D18 May 25A · Inter2–24
W6 Apr 25A · Atalanta1–02
L16 Dec 24H · Inter0–62
L12 Sep 21A · AC Milan0–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.