Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Lecce had 3.2 days of rest, Napoli 3.1 and had to travel 334 km.
Away travel334 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lecce18%
Draw25%
Napoli58%
Lecce16%
Draw22%
Napoli62%
Lecce16%
Draw24%
Napoli61%
Lecce13%
Draw22%
Napoli65%
Lecce18%
Draw23%
Napoli59%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 14
Team strength
Lecce
Napoli
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
36
AttackIn forecast
61
30
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceNapoli
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
63%
Scored inContext
88%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.88
ShotsContext
15.25
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
27%
On target shareContext
36%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
56%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.25
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
2.63
BlocksContext
3.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
63%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
346
PassesContext
548
269
Accurate passesContext
480
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.88
FoulsContext
12.88
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
13.20
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
35%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
58%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.38
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.90
BlocksContext
3.60
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
74%
Save rateContext
58%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
330
PassesContext
490
252
Accurate passesContext
425
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.90
FoulsContext
11.50
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,501 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Napoli
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel334 km1,423 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 334 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,501 km | 1,423 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
10M. Berisha
20Y. Ramadani
29L. Coulibaly
19L. Banda
22F. Camarda
50S. Pierotti
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
17M. Olivera
4A. Buongiorno
5Juan Jesus
22G. Di Lorenzo
20E. Elmas
6B. Gilmour
99F. Anguissa
70N. Lang
27L. Lucca
21M. Politano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+1.6 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- Napoli-2.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Napoli · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Lecce | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Lecce wins2 draws4 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.50
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 3 May 2025Lecce0–1Napoli
- 26 Oct 2024Napoli1–0Lecce
- 26 May 2024Napoli0–0Lecce
- 30 Sep 2023Lecce0–4Napoli
- 7 Apr 2023Lecce1–2Napoli
- 31 Aug 2022Napoli1–1Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Lecce | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 8.72 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 2.88 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Lecce | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 9.89 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.70 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.91
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+29%league 39%
Fouls24.7league 25.9
Penalties0.14league 0.28
Home wins43%league 38%
Lecce2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Feb 25A · Monza0–02
- L2 Nov 24A · Bologna0–12
NapoliNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce8 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Napoli8 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
