Lecce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lecce48.8%fair odds 2.05
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.61
Pisa23.5%fair odds 4.25
Expected goals1.47 – 0.94total 2.41
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Pisa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lecce ↓ · Pisa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lecce goals, columns Pisa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.65
- 1–012.5%8.00
- 2–09.7%10.33
- 0–09.6%10.42
- 2–19.1%10.96
- 0–17.8%12.86
- 1–25.9%17.09
- 3–04.7%21.07
- 3–14.5%22.34
- 2–24.3%23.23
Winning margin
9.8%
Lecce by 3+
fair 10.24
15.0%
Lecce by 2
fair 6.66
24.0%
Lecce by 1
fair 4.17
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.61
15.2%
Pisa by 1
fair 6.60
6.2%
Pisa by 2
fair 16.21
2.2%
Pisa by 3+
fair 45.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Lecce goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Pisa goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 48.8% | 50.5% | -1.7 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 25.6% | +2.1 pp |
| Pisa win | 23.5% | 23.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 43.4% | 51.6% | -8.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.7% | 54.0% | -6.3 pp |
| Expected goals Lecce | 1.47 | 1.66 | -0.19 |
| Expected goals Pisa | 0.94 | 1.07 | -0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lecce win48.8%2.05
- Draw27.7%3.61
- Pisa win23.5%4.25
- Double chance Lecce or draw76.5%1.31
- Double chance Lecce or Pisa72.3%1.38
- Double chance Pisa or draw51.2%1.95
- Draw no bet Lecce67.4%1.48
- Draw no bet Pisa32.6%3.07
Goals
- Over 0.590.4%1.11
- Over 1.570.1%1.43
- Over 2.543.4%2.30
- Over 3.522.4%4.46
- Over 4.59.8%10.24
- Under 1.529.9%3.35
- Under 2.556.6%1.77
- Under 3.577.6%1.29
Both teams to score
- Yes47.7%2.10
- No52.3%1.91
- Yes and over 2.534.6%2.89
- Lecce win and yes19.4%5.15
- Draw and yes18.1%5.53
- Pisa win and yes10.2%9.83
Team goals
- Lecce over 0.577.0%1.30
- Lecce over 1.543.2%2.31
- Lecce over 2.518.4%5.44
- Pisa over 0.561.1%1.64
- Pisa over 1.524.3%4.11
- Pisa over 2.57.0%14.25
- Lecce clean sheet38.9%2.57
- Pisa clean sheet23.0%4.35
- Lecce win to nil29.3%3.41
- Pisa win to nil13.4%7.48
Handicap
- Lecce −1.524.8%4.04
- Lecce −2.59.8%10.24
- Pisa +1.575.2%1.33
- Pisa +2.590.2%1.11
- Pisa −1.58.4%11.92
- Lecce +1.591.6%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored140
Favourite won47.1%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.624
Over 2.5 called right54.3%
BTTS called right48.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 37.9% | 40.9% |
| 40–50% | 48 | 44.5% | 41.7% |
| 50–60% | 30 | 54.6% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 64.2% | 70.8% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 72.9% | 63.6% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 119 of 140 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6206 | 0.6021 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.2% | 39.8% |
| Favourite won | 46.2% | 46.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 119 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 140 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.