Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lecce were slight favourites.
Lecce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 16). Lecce had 5.3 days of rest, Pisa 4.2 and had to travel 742 km.
Away travel742 kmRest days5.3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lecce49%
Draw28%
Pisa24%
Lecce50%
Draw26%
Pisa24%
Lecce49%
Draw28%
Pisa24%
Lecce42%
Draw29%
Pisa29%
Lecce51%
Draw26%
Pisa24%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Lecce
Pisa
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
36
AttackIn forecast
15
30
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeccePisa
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
50%
Scored inContext
43%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.36
ShotsContext
10.00
2.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
28%
On target shareContext
24%
5.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
57%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
1.30
OffsidesContext
1.64
12.21
Shots allowedContext
15.36
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.14
BlocksContext
4.46
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
70%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
341
PassesContext
314
262
Accurate passesContext
242
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.64
FoulsContext
12.86
14.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.07
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
50%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.40
ShotsContext
9.50
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
29%
On target shareContext
22%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
55%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.80
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.40
BlocksContext
4.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
338
PassesContext
314
254
Accurate passesContext
242
75%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.80
FoulsContext
12.60
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,702 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Pisa
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel742 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 742 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,702 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
3C. Ndaba
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
20Y. Ramadani
23R. Sottil
29L. Coulibaly
10M. Berisha
50S. Pierotti
22F. Camarda
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
7M. Léris
14E. Akinsanmiro
20M. Aebischer
21İ. Vural
15I. Touré
9H. Meister
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.14
Pisa · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Lecce | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Udinese | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Parma | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | D 2–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 36 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.07 | 2.07 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 36% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 36% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 57% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Lecce | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.93 | 3.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.21 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 8.53 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 12/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 9/14 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.64 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Lecce | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 7.45 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.33league 3.88
Red cards0.00league 0.15
Cards 5+0%league 38%
Fouls27.7league 26.0
Penalties0.33league 0.34
Home wins33%league 39%
LecceNo previous matches with this referee.
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce14 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
61-75
3
4
76-90
Pisa14 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
