Lecce vs Torino – 30 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 30 · 11:30 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 18th · 10 pts · 12 played LLWDL

2–1Full time

Torino 12th · 14 pts · 12 played WDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Torino. Lecce had 6.8 days of rest, Torino 5.8 and had to travel 1,003 km.

Away travel1,003 kmRest days6.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lecce33%

Draw29%

Torino38%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.23

Lecce33%

Draw27%

Torino40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Lecce32%

Draw29%

Torino38%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.25

Lecce27%

Draw29%

Torino45%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.38

Lecce34%

Draw27%

Torino39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

Over 2.5 42% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 91

Team strength

Lecce

Torino

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

36 AttackIn forecast 39

30 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Torino

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.92

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

50% Scored inContext 58%

42% Clean sheetsContext 42%

9.42 ShotsContext 11.17

3.09 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

30% On target shareContext 35%

4.92 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

54% Box shareContext 66%

7% ConversionContext 8%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.82

12.08 Shots allowedContext 14.67

4.42 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.00 BlocksContext 3.67

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

70% Save rateContext 61%

44% PossessionIn forecast 43%

342 PassesContext 354

263 Accurate passesContext 284

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.42 FoulsContext 12.50

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.42

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

60% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.90 ShotsContext 11.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

32% On target shareContext 34%

4.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

51% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.29 OffsidesContext 1.89

12.60 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.20 BlocksContext 3.70

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

69% Save rateContext 63%

44% PossessionIn forecast 43%

343 PassesContext 358

263 Accurate passesContext 285

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.70 FoulsContext 12.40

13.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,003 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov	5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,003 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,008 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	8.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 10M. Berisha 50S. Pierotti

9N. Štulić

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

81F. Israel(G)

23Saúl Coco 13G. Maripán 61A. Tamèze

25N. Nkounkou 66G. Gineitis 32K. Asllani 22C. Casadei 16M. Pedersen

10N. Vlašić 19C. Adams

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.7 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Torino-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-3-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.17

Torino · Away 1.00points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-2
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Torino
Lazio	L 0–2 A	D 3–3 A
Fiorentina	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 H
Napoli	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Parma	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
Bologna	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Atalanta	L 1–4 A	L 0–3 H
Genoa	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 H
Points	8 of 21 · 1.14 per game	9 of 21 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Lecce wins1 draws4 Torino wins

Goals per game0.17 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets33% · 83%

18 May 2025Lecce1–0Torino
15 Sep 2024Torino0–0Lecce
16 Feb 2024Torino2–0Lecce
28 Oct 2023Lecce0–1Torino
12 Mar 2023Lecce0–2Torino
5 Sep 2022Torino1–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	0.92
Conceded per game	1.33	1.75
Match goals	2.00	2.67	2.36
Over 1.5	50%	58%
Over 2.5	33%	58%	42%
Over 3.5	25%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	42%	49%
Clean sheets	42%	42%
Failed to score	50%	42%
Games	12	12

	Lecce	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.10
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.70	2.36
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	42%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	49%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.92	3.80
Corners conceded	5.17	4.80
Match total	10.09	8.60	8.72
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	58% 7/12	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.83
Opponent cards	1.83	1.50
Match total	3.41	3.33	4.03
Over 3.5	58% 7/12	58% 7/12
Over 4.5	42% 5/12	33% 4/12

	Lecce	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.25
Corners conceded	5.40	4.88
Match total	10.20	8.13	8.72
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.60
Match total	3.50	3.60	4.03
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 3.91

Red cards0.21league 0.14

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls24.0league 25.9

Penalties0.23league 0.31

Home wins45%league 38%

Lecce6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W15 Dec 24H · Monza2–11
W29 Oct 24H · Verona1–01
L5 Oct 24A · Udinese0–12
W13 Apr 24H · Empoli1–01
D21 May 23H · Spezia0–02

Torino7 with this referee

Record2-0-5 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 2

L27 Apr 25A · Napoli0–23
W7 Jan 24H · Napoli3–00
L26 Aug 23A · AC Milan1–43
L15 Oct 22H · Juventus0–12
W13 Aug 22A · Monza2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.