Lecce vs Verona – 8 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 8 · 14:00 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 15th · 9 pts · 10 played WDLLW

0–0Full time

Verona 19th · 5 pts · 10 played LDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lecce were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Lecce had 6 days of rest, Verona 6.1 and had to travel 813 km.

Away travel813 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 3

Lecce45%

Draw29%

Verona26%

Expected goals 1.38 – 0.99

Lecce46%

Draw26%

Verona28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Lecce44%

Draw29%

Verona27%

Expected goals 1.36 – 0.99

Lecce38%

Draw29%

Verona32%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.11

Lecce47%

Draw26%

Verona27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Over 2.5 42% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 45

Team strength

Lecce

Verona

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

36 AttackIn forecast 15

30 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Verona

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.70 ShotsContext 12.70

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

28% On target shareContext 39%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

57% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 5%

1.29 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.10 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.10 BlocksContext 3.90

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

67% Save rateContext 63%

44% PossessionIn forecast 38%

340 PassesContext 305

263 Accurate passesContext 223

77% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.60 FoulsContext 16.40

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.70 ShotsContext 12.70

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

28% On target shareContext 39%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

57% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 5%

1.29 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.10 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.10 BlocksContext 3.90

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

67% Save rateContext 63%

44% PossessionIn forecast 38%

340 PassesContext 305

263 Accurate passesContext 223

77% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.60 FoulsContext 16.40

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,373 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel813 km308 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	813 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,373 km	308 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.1	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 10M. Berisha 7Tete Morente

9N. Štulić

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 15V. Nelsson 37A. Bella-Kotchap

12D. Bradarić 21A. Harroui 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 7R. Belghali

16G. Orban 17Giovane

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.8 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Verona-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 1.40

Verona · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Verona
Udinese	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Lecce wins2 draws3 Verona wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 50%

11 May 2025Verona1–1Lecce
29 Oct 2024Lecce1–0Verona
10 Mar 2024Lecce0–1Verona
27 Nov 2023Verona2–2Lecce
7 May 2023Lecce0–1Verona
21 Jan 2023Verona2–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.60
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.20	2.36
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	42%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

	Lecce	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.60
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.20	2.36
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	42%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.90
Corners conceded	5.20	4.00
Match total	10.20	7.90	8.98
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.70	2.10
Match total	3.40	4.40	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

	Lecce	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.90
Corners conceded	5.20	4.00
Match total	10.20	7.90	8.98
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.70	2.10
Match total	3.40	4.40	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 3.93

Red cards0.29league 0.13

Cards 5+49%league 40%

Fouls25.2league 25.9

Penalties0.38league 0.29

Home wins29%league 38%

Lecce2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D11 Nov 23H · AC Milan2–24
L19 Mar 23A · Fiorentina0–13

Verona4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D18 May 25H · Como1–12
L28 Apr 25H · Cagliari0–23
L23 Feb 24A · Bologna0–22
L21 Oct 23H · Napoli1–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.