Leeds vs Brentford – 21 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 31 Sat, Mar 21 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 15th · 32 pts · 30 played DDLLD

0–0Full time

Brentford 8th · 45 pts · 30 played DLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 67). Leeds had 6.3 days of rest, Brentford 5 and had to travel 270 km.

Away travel270 kmRest days6.3 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1

Leeds40%

Draw26%

Brentford34%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.36

Leeds38%

Draw27%

Brentford34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Leeds39%

Draw26%

Brentford34%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.36

Leeds32%

Draw26%

Brentford42%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.53

Leeds39%

Draw27%

Brentford34%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.30

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 103

Team strength

Leeds

Brentford

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

69 AttackIn forecast 73

77 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Brentford

1.23 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.53

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

67% Scored inContext 70%

17% Clean sheetsContext 23%

12.43 ShotsContext 10.47

3.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

31% On target shareContext 38%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.07

67% Box shareContext 73%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.09

12.20 Shots allowedContext 12.57

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.97

3.89 BlocksContext 4.20

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

64% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

394 PassesContext 395

314 Accurate passesContext 313

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.53 FoulsContext 11.10

11.37 Fouls sufferedContext 9.48

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

60% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 11.80

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

32% On target shareContext 36%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

66% Box shareContext 75%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.80 BlocksContext 3.30

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

67% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

386 PassesContext 446

305 Accurate passesContext 361

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.10 FoulsContext 10.30

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel270 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar	5Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	270 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	544 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	23	20.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

26K. Darlow(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

24J. Justin 18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

11B. Aaronson

14L. Nmecha 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 5E. Pinnock 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 6J. Henderson 18Y. Yarmoliuk

9Thiago 7K. Schade

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brentford-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-5
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.33

Brentford · Away 1.27points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-8
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Brentford
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H	L 0–2 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A	L 0–1 H
Aston Villa	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Everton	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	W 4–2 A
Fulham	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 A
Newcastle	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Liverpool	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H	W 3–2 H
Brighton	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
West Ham	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Burnley	L 0–2 A	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H
Tottenham	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H
Wolves	W 3–1 A	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Points	31 of 87 · 1.07 per game	44 of 87 · 1.52 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Leeds wins3 draws1 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 20%

14 Dec 2025Brentford1–1Leeds
22 Jan 2023Leeds0–0Brentford
3 Sep 2022Brentford5–2Leeds
22 May 2022Brentford1–2Leeds
5 Dec 2021Leeds2–2Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.23	1.53
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	2.83	2.93	2.85
Over 1.5	73%	83%
Over 2.5	53%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	53%	58%
Clean sheets	17%	23%
Failed to score	33%	30%
Games	30	30

	Leeds	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.40
Match goals	2.60	2.80	2.85
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.68	5.03
Corners conceded	4.64	5.10
Match total	9.32	10.13	10.02
Over 8.5	64% 18/28	72% 21/29
Over 9.5	50% 14/28	66% 19/29
Over 10.5	36% 10/28	55% 16/29
Cards
Cards	1.63	1.97
Opponent cards	1.80	1.83
Match total	3.43	3.80	3.93
Over 3.5	43% 13/30	57% 17/30
Over 4.5	33% 10/30	40% 12/30

	Leeds	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.90
Corners conceded	5.80	5.20
Match total	10.30	10.10	10.02
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	4.00	3.50	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.78

Red cards0.10league 0.13

Cards 5+38%league 40%

Fouls20.1league 21.5

Penalties0.22league 0.22

Home wins37%league 42%

Leeds4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 2

D4 Jan 26H · Manchester United1–10
L9 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest1–31
L23 Aug 25A · Arsenal0–52
D9 Feb 22A · Aston Villa3–33

Brentford12 with this referee

Record3-3-6 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 1

L21 Feb 26H · Brighton0–21
L18 May 25H · Fulham2–34
L8 Mar 25H · Aston Villa0–12
L2 Feb 25H · Tottenham0–20
W20 Apr 24A · Luton5–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.