Leeds vs Crystal Palace – 20 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 20 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 17th · 16 pts · 16 played LLWDD

4–1Full time

Crystal Palace 7th · 26 pts · 16 played WLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 63). Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Leeds had 6.1 days of rest, Crystal Palace 6.3 and had to travel 272 km.

Away travel272 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 2

Leeds37%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace36%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.38

Leeds35%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36

Leeds36%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace38%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.41

Leeds30%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace44%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.55

Leeds37%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 95

Team strength

Leeds

Crystal Palace

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

69 AttackIn forecast 64

77 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Crystal Palace

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.94

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

69% Scored inContext 69%

13% Clean sheetsContext 44%

12.63 ShotsContext 11.81

3.81 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

30% On target shareContext 36%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.87

65% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.56 Shots allowedContext 10.75

4.19 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.73

3.57 BlocksContext 3.08

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.79

63% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 42%

407 PassesContext 367

330 Accurate passesContext 283

81% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.75 FoulsContext 10.13

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.25

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 13.80

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

31% On target shareContext 33%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.44

68% Box shareContext 75%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.70

11.90 Shots allowedContext 8.70

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.67 BlocksContext 2.67

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

56% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 45%

416 PassesContext 387

338 Accurate passesContext 304

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.90 FoulsContext 10.60

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km540 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel272 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec	6.3Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	540 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Lucas Perri(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

3G. Gudmundsson 18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 11B. Aaronson 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 20A. Wharton 19W. Hughes 17N. Clyne

10Yeremy Pino 9E. Nketiah

14J. Mateta

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+1.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Crystal Palace-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.38

Crystal Palace · Away 2.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-2
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 0.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Crystal Palace
Brentford	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	D 3–3 H	W 2–1 H
Chelsea	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 A
Manchester City	L 2–3 A	L 0–3 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 A
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Brighton	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 H
West Ham	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Burnley	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	D 3–3 H
Wolves	W 3–1 A	W 2–0 A
Fulham	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Arsenal	L 0–5 A	L 0–1 A
Everton	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 A
Points	15 of 42 · 1.07 per game	25 of 42 · 1.79 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Leeds wins1 draws3 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.83 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%

9 Apr 2023Leeds1–5Crystal Palace
9 Oct 2022Crystal Palace2–1Leeds
25 Apr 2022Crystal Palace0–0Leeds
30 Nov 2021Leeds1–0Crystal Palace
8 Feb 2021Leeds2–0Crystal Palace
7 Nov 2020Crystal Palace4–1Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.25
Conceded per game	1.88	0.94
Match goals	3.13	2.19	2.78
Over 1.5	81%	69%
Over 2.5	69%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	44%	6%
Both teams scored	63%	44%	57%
Clean sheets	13%	44%
Failed to score	31%	31%
Games	16	16

	Leeds	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.20
Conceded per game	2.10	1.20
Match goals	3.50	2.40	2.78
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	3.69
Corners conceded	3.50	5.06
Match total	7.79	8.75	9.86
Over 8.5	50% 7/14	44% 7/16
Over 9.5	29% 4/14	44% 7/16
Over 10.5	14% 2/14	38% 6/16
Cards
Cards	1.63	1.69
Opponent cards	1.63	1.94
Match total	3.26	3.63	3.86
Over 3.5	38% 6/16	63% 10/16
Over 4.5	31% 5/16	56% 9/16

	Leeds	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.30
Corners conceded	3.67	3.10
Match total	7.67	7.40	9.86
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	3.70	3.00	3.86
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 95 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.69

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+39%league 39%

Fouls22.0league 22.0

Penalties0.17league 0.19

Home wins48%league 48%

Leeds2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L4 Oct 25H · Tottenham1–22
D5 Apr 25A · Luton1–12

Crystal Palace7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L26 Oct 25A · Arsenal0–10
D13 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–01
W18 Jan 25A · West Ham2–00
D26 Dec 24A · Bournemouth0–02
W11 May 24A · Wolves3–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.