Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Leeds were slight favourites.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Leeds. Leeds had 5.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 2.8 and had to travel 272 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel272 kmRest days5.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Leeds56%
Draw22%
Crystal Palace22%
Leeds51%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace24%
Leeds56%
Draw22%
Crystal Palace22%
Leeds48%
Draw23%
Crystal Palace29%
Leeds57%
Draw21%
Crystal Palace22%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
17°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 50%
RefereeAdam Herczeg
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 34
Team strength
Leeds
Crystal Palace
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
69
AttackIn forecast
64
77
DefenceIn forecast
54
83
Form indexContext
50
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsCrystal Palace
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.75
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.25
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
57%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
4.50
15.25
Shots allowedContext
17.75
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
6.67
BlocksContext
4.75
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
88%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
347
PassesContext
409
263
Accurate passesContext
338
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.75
FoulsContext
9.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
61%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.00
BlocksContext
3.80
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
74%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
369
PassesContext
391
283
Accurate passesContext
316
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.40
FoulsContext
8.90
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
WDDW
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 8 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected
Crystal Palace
LLWLW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Premier League 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19.9 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
18A. Stach
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
44W. Benítez(G)
6J. Canvot
17T. Tomiyasu
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
20A. Wharton
23Q. Timber
25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino
18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Crystal Palace · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Leeds wins2 draws3 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 15 Mar 2026Crystal Palace0–0Leeds
- 20 Dec 2025Leeds4–1Crystal Palace
- 9 Apr 2023Leeds1–5Crystal Palace
- 9 Oct 2022Crystal Palace2–1Leeds
- 25 Apr 2022Crystal Palace0–0Leeds
- 30 Nov 2021Leeds1–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.25 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Leeds | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.33 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.25 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Leeds | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.44 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 9.89 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adam Herczeg 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.83
Red cards0.15league 0.13
Cards 5+24%league 41%
Fouls21.7league 22.9
Penalties0.15league 0.20
Home wins47%league 37%
LeedsNo previous matches with this referee.
Crystal PalaceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds4 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Crystal Palace4 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
