Leeds vs Everton – 18 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 18 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds

1–0Full time

Everton

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Leeds were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Leeds usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Leeds had ? days of rest, Everton ? and had to travel 104 km.

Away travel104 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Leeds45%

Draw25%

Everton30%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.32

Leeds42%

Draw27%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Leeds45%

Draw26%

Everton30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.28

Leeds38%

Draw26%

Everton37%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.48

Leeds43%

Draw26%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.25

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 126

Team strength

Leeds

Everton

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

69 AttackIn forecast 61

77 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Everton

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

100% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.20 ShotsContext 9.50

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

37% On target shareContext 40%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

74% Box shareContext 72%

15% ConversionContext 12%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.67

6.80 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.43 BlocksContext 3.40

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

74% Save rateContext 84%

64% PossessionIn forecast 42%

563 PassesContext 358

484 Accurate passesContext 291

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.21 Team ratingContext 7.04

8.60 FoulsContext 10.50

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel104 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Lucas Perri(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 2J. Bogle

18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 22A. Tanaka

29D. Gnonto 10J. Piroe 7D. James

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

37J. Garner 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

27I. Gueye 42T. Iroegbunam

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 24C. Alcaraz

9Beto

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+0.7 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Everton-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home No home games yet this season.

Everton · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Leeds wins2 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

18 Feb 2023Everton1–0Leeds
30 Aug 2022Leeds1–1Everton
12 Feb 2022Everton3–0Leeds
21 Aug 2021Leeds2–2Everton
3 Feb 2021Leeds1–2Everton
28 Nov 2020Everton0–1Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.99
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Leeds	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.99
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.11
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.22
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Leeds	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.90
Corners conceded	2.63	6.40
Match total	8.63	10.30	10.11
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.70	1.20
Match total	3.30	3.40	3.22
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 126 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.11

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 33%

Fouls21.7league 22.8

Penalties0.25league 0.22

Home wins37%league 44%

Leeds10 with this referee

Record3-0-7 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.1 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

W17 Sep 23A · Millwall3–00
L30 Apr 23A · Bournemouth1–40
L16 Oct 22H · Arsenal0–10
L8 May 22A · Arsenal1–23
L22 Jan 22H · Newcastle0–14

Everton6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L26 Apr 25A · Chelsea0–10
D22 Dec 24H · Chelsea0–04
D23 Nov 24H · Brentford0–00
D7 Nov 21H · Tottenham0–03
W20 Feb 21A · Liverpool2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.