Premier League Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 24 · 15:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel104 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Leeds—%
Draw—%
Liverpool—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

Forecast from 9 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Leeds and Liverpool. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LeedsLiverpool
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
73 Current StrengthIn forecast 84
69 AttackIn forecast 85
77 DefenceIn forecast 84
64 Form indexContext 87
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LeedsLiverpool
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
86% Scored inContext 71%
29% Clean sheetsContext 43%
12.00 ShotsContext 15.71
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
33% On target shareContext 32%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
65% Box shareContext 55%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.14
14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.86
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
5.17 BlocksContext 3.86
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
86% Save rateContext 67%
47% PossessionIn forecast 56%
385 PassesContext 482
302 Accurate passesContext 408
78% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.90
12.71 FoulsContext 13.86
11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.89
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.09
80% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.50 ShotsContext 17.40
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
31% On target shareContext 33%
7.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
62% Box shareContext 62%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.40 OffsidesContext 2.50
14.90 Shots allowedContext 11.50
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
4.89 BlocksContext 3.20
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
77% Save rateContext 62%
46% PossessionIn forecast 56%
376 PassesContext 487
292 Accurate passesContext 417
78% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.99
11.90 FoulsContext 12.10
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts
Liverpool
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel104 km264 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Leeds Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Apr7Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways540 km264 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.75
Liverpool · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLeedsLiverpool
Newcastle W 4–1 H D 2–2 A
Brentford D 1–1 H W 2–1 A
Nottingham Forest W 1–0 A D 2–2 H
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Leeds wins3 draws4 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.25 – 3.00 Over 2.575% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 38%
  • 1 Jan 2026Liverpool0–0Leeds
  • 6 Dec 2025Leeds3–3Liverpool
  • 17 Apr 2023Leeds1–6Liverpool
  • 29 Oct 2022Liverpool1–2Leeds
  • 23 Feb 2022Liverpool6–0Leeds
  • 12 Sep 2021Leeds0–3Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LeedsLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.291.29
Conceded per game 0.861.14
Match goals 2.142.43
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 29%57%
Over 3.5 14%29%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 29%43%
Failed to score 14%29%
Games77
LeedsLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.101.80
Conceded per game 1.001.30
Match goals 2.103.10
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 30%60%
Over 3.5 10%30%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LeedsLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.86
Corners conceded4.144.43
Match total8.149.299.49
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.862.71
Opponent cards2.432.43
Match total4.295.144.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
LeedsLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won4.106.60
Corners conceded5.704.10
Match total9.8010.709.49
Over 8.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 9.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.802.20
Opponent cards2.002.20
Match total3.804.404.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Crystal Palace Apr 2415:00 Newcastle Ipswich Apr 2415:00 Bournemouth Arsenal Apr 2415:00 Everton Brighton Apr 2415:00 Tottenham Hull City Apr 2415:00 Chelsea Manchester City Apr 2415:00 Brentford Fulham Apr 2415:00 Leeds Liverpool Apr 2415:00 Nottingham Forest Sunderland Apr 2415:00 Aston Villa Coventry Apr 2415:00