Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Leeds47.0%fair odds 2.13
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.96
Newcastle27.8%fair odds 3.60
Expected goals1.67 – 1.24total 2.91
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Newcastle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Leeds ↓ · Newcastle → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Leeds goals, columns Newcastle goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.43
- 2–19.4%10.61
- 1–08.5%11.77
- 2–07.6%13.14
- 1–27.0%14.33
- 0–16.1%16.30
- 0–06.0%16.58
- 2–25.8%17.12
- 3–15.3%19.02
- 3–04.2%23.56
Winning margin
10.7%
Leeds by 3+
fair 9.32
14.4%
Leeds by 2
fair 6.93
21.8%
Leeds by 1
fair 4.59
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.96
16.0%
Newcastle by 1
fair 6.25
7.9%
Newcastle by 2
fair 12.63
3.9%
Newcastle by 3+
fair 25.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Leeds goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Newcastle goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 47.0% | 47.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 24.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Newcastle win | 27.8% | 27.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 57.0% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.3% | 59.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.67 | 1.71 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Newcastle | 1.24 | 1.25 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Leeds win47.0%2.13
- Draw25.3%3.96
- Newcastle win27.8%3.60
- Double chance Leeds or draw72.2%1.38
- Double chance Leeds or Newcastle74.7%1.34
- Double chance Newcastle or draw53.0%1.89
- Draw no bet Leeds62.9%1.59
- Draw no bet Newcastle37.1%2.69
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.3%1.26
- Over 2.555.7%1.80
- Over 3.533.3%3.00
- Over 4.517.0%5.87
- Under 1.520.7%4.84
- Under 2.544.3%2.26
- Under 3.566.7%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes58.3%1.72
- No41.7%2.40
- Yes and over 2.546.4%2.15
- Leeds win and yes24.0%4.16
- Draw and yes19.2%5.20
- Newcastle win and yes15.0%6.65
Team goals
- Leeds over 0.581.2%1.23
- Leeds over 1.549.8%2.01
- Leeds over 2.523.6%4.24
- Newcastle over 0.571.0%1.41
- Newcastle over 1.535.1%2.85
- Newcastle over 2.512.9%7.75
- Leeds clean sheet29.0%3.45
- Newcastle clean sheet18.8%5.33
- Leeds win to nil22.9%4.36
- Newcastle win to nil12.7%7.86
Handicap
- Leeds −1.525.2%3.97
- Leeds −2.510.7%9.32
- Newcastle +1.574.8%1.34
- Newcastle +2.589.3%1.12
- Newcastle −1.511.8%8.50
- Leeds +1.588.2%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored39
Favourite won35.9%
Avg chance given to result36.6%
1X2 Brier0.678
Over 2.5 called right51.3%
BTTS called right59.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.5% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 44.5% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 55.0% | 28.6% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.5% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 39 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.7222 | 0.6759 |
| Avg chance given to result | 33.9% | 36.4% |
| Favourite won | 32.1% | 35.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 28 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 39 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.