Leeds vs Newcastle – 14 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 4 Mon, Sep 14 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 11th · 5 pts · 3 played WDD

4–1Full time

Newcastle 10th · 5 pts · 3 played DWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Leeds were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Leeds. Leeds had 9.2 days of rest, Newcastle 9.3 and had to travel 131 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel131 kmRest days9.2 · 9.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Leeds48%

Draw24%

Newcastle28%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.24

Leeds41%

Draw26%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Leeds47%

Draw24%

Newcastle29%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.24

Leeds40%

Draw25%

Newcastle35%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.39

Leeds48%

Draw24%

Newcastle28%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.25

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

22°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 58%

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 90

Team strength

Leeds

Newcastle

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

69 AttackIn forecast 61

77 DefenceIn forecast 61

70 Form indexContext 68

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Newcastle

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.47 Goals minus xGContext +1.00

100% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.67

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

30% On target shareContext 25%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

52% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 19%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.33

18.00 Shots allowedContext 20.33

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

6.67 BlocksContext 8.67

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

92% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 46%

316 PassesContext 376

228 Accurate passesContext 305

72% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.67 FoulsContext 14.67

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 15.67

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.40 ShotsContext 11.50

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 33%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

62% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.25

15.80 Shots allowedContext 16.10

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

5.10 BlocksContext 5.60

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

72% Save rateContext 72%

45% PossessionIn forecast 50%

370 PassesContext 434

284 Accurate passesContext 356

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.10 FoulsContext 11.20

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds WDD

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km682 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 5 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts
D30 AugH · Brentford1–11.4 xPts
W22 AugA · Nottingham Forest1–01.1 xPts

Newcastle DWD

Rest9.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel131 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 68 · 5 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts
W29 AugA · Tottenham2–01.4 xPts
D23 AugH · Liverpool2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep	9.3Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	131 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	682 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 18A. Stach 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

21L. Horníček(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 37A. Dedić

6Nico González 67L. Miley

11H. Barnes 20M. Fernandez-Pardo 23J. Murphy

9Y. Wissa

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Newcastle-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Newcastle · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Leeds wins4 draws2 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.38 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 38%

7 Jan 2026Newcastle4–3Leeds
30 Aug 2025Leeds0–0Newcastle
13 May 2023Leeds2–2Newcastle
31 Dec 2022Newcastle0–0Leeds
22 Jan 2022Leeds0–1Newcastle
17 Sep 2021Newcastle1–1Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.67	1.33
Match goals	1.67	3.33	2.91
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	67%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	58%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	Leeds	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	2.50	2.90	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	4.33
Corners conceded	5.33	6.00
Match total	9.66	10.33	9.18
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.33	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.33
Match total	4.33	5.33	4.11
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3

	Leeds	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.90
Corners conceded	8.11	4.90
Match total	12.11	8.80	9.18
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	89% 8/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.30	2.30
Match total	4.00	4.50	4.11
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.90

Red cards0.19league 0.13

Cards 5+37%league 41%

Fouls22.3league 23.5

Penalties0.28league 0.21

Home wins51%league 31%

Leeds6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.7 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D22 Apr 26A · Bournemouth2–20
L7 Jan 26A · Newcastle3–42
W1 Feb 25H · Cardiff7–00
W18 Mar 23A · Wolves4–25
L12 Nov 22A · Tottenham3–43

Newcastle5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against3 · 1

W7 Jan 26H · Leeds4–33
W26 Apr 25H · Ipswich3–01
W10 Mar 25A · West Ham1–01
D17 Feb 24H · Bournemouth2–21
D3 Sep 22H · Crystal Palace0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.